The story told in the latest Oklahoma Crop Production report from USDA based on September first is one of mostly smaller crop potential in September versus August- but when you look at year over year- it’s more of a mixed bag.
The Oklahoma Cotton crop may still be significantly larger than the 2023 crop which featured large numbers of abandoned acres. Oklahoma cotton farmers ended up harvesting just 180,000 acres last year and a final production of 210,000 bales. At this point- USDA continues to see a lot more acres to be harvested this season with the estimate at 315,000 acres. NASS did slice the expected pounds of lint per acre from 655 pounds predicted in August to 533 pounds of lint per acre for the September report, with the current estimate of 350,000 bales predicted to come out of Oklahoma cotton fields. The end of summer and early fall season will once again make or break the cotton crop in the state- but if the current estimate should become final- cotton producers will enjoy a 66% percent larger size crop than in 2023.
Oklahoma 2024 soybean production is currently expected to be 10% larger then in 2023 at 11,830,000 bushels. The September first estimate is based on 455,000 harvested acres and a yield of 26 bushels per acre. Yield and production potential is down compared to the 30 bushels per acre and 13,650,000 bushel crop predicted a month ago.
The Oklahoma Corn crop is on track to be seven percent larger than the crop grown in 2023- currently USDA sees a 54,200,000 bushel crop in the state- up from 50,660,000 produced a year ago. USDA currently predicts a 139 bushel per acre in the state versus 142 BPA back in August.
Fewer harvested acres of grain sorghum are expected here in 2024 compared to 2023- 285,000 acres this year versus 350,000 harvested in 2023. That’s the main reason for a 22% smaller milo crop in the state- currently estimated at 12,800,000 bushels as of September first.
Peanut production this season shows 17,000 acres this year- up from 15,000 a year ago. Yields are called 4,100 pounds this growing season and the expected production for the state is 69,700,000 for 2024 versus 58,500,000 pounds in 2023.
Nationally- Corn production is down, while soybean and cotton production is up from 2023, according to the Crop Production report issued today by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Corn production is down 1% from last year, forecast at 15.2 billion bushels; soybean growers are expected to increase their production 10% from 2023, forecast at 4.59 billion bushels; cotton production is up 20% from 2023 at 14.5 million 480-pound bales.
As is done every year in September, planted and harvested acreage estimates for corn, cotton, and soybeans were reviewed based on all available data, including the latest certified acreage data from the Farm Service Agency. As a result, area planted to corn is estimated at 90.7 million acres, unchanged from the previous estimate; area planted to soybeans is estimated at 87.1 million acres, unchanged from the previous estimate; and area planted to cotton is estimated at 11.2 million acres, up slightly from the previous estimate.
The average U.S. corn yield is forecast at 183.6 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from last month’s forecast, and up 6.3 bushels from last year. NASS forecasts record high yields in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, New York, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Acres planted to corn, at 90.7 million, are down 4% from 2023. Area to be harvested for grain is forecast at 82.7 million acres, unchanged from last month, but 4% less than was harvested last year. As of Sept. 1, 65% of this year’s corn crop was reported in good or excellent condition, 12 percentage points above the same time last year.
Area for soybean harvest is forecast at 86.3 million acres, unchanged from last month, but 5% more than was harvested last year. Planted area for the nation, estimated at 87.1 million acres, is up 4% from last year. Soybean yields are expected to average 53.2 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month’s forecast, but up 2.6 bushels from 2023. If realized, the forecasted yields in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, New York, and Texas will be record highs.
NASS forecasts all cotton area to be harvested at 8.63 million acres, up slightly from last month’s forecast, and 34% more acres than were harvested last season. Yield is expected to average 807 pounds per harvested acre, down 33 pounds from last month’s forecast, and down 92 pounds from 2023. Area planted to all cotton is estimated at 11.2 million acres, up 9% from last year.
NASS surveyed more than 6,900 producers across the country and conducted objective yield surveys for corn and soybeans in preparation for this report.
Click here for the USDA Crop Production report released on Thursday and based on data as of September 1, 2024.
