Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays talked to OSU Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel after the latest USDA Cattle of Feed Report was released on Friday afternoon and reflected no surprises.
The September USDA Cattle on Feed Report pegged August Placements at 98.6% of last year; Marketings in August were 96.4% of last year, and the on-feed total as of September 1, was 100.6% of last year.
“Placements is always the wildcard in this. It’s hard to know the timing of what’s coming in,” Dr. Peel said. “This time, at least collectively, the average trade guess was right on the money.”
Because of that, he doesn’t expect the report to impact the market much. “If you looked at the cattle futures trade last week, it was stellar. We’ve kind of been in the doldrums since about the first of August, with the stock market shock that hit all the markets.”
According to Dr. Peel, the markets are moving past that event as both feeder and fed cattle were very strong last week in terms of futures trade. He expects a rise in the cash markets as well.
As is usual, in Oklahoma in September, the outlook depends on rainfall. There are small amounts of wheat sprouting across the state, but less than Dr. Peel would like to see. Adequate rain will sprout any dry wheat that was planted and may encourage producers who are waiting to go ahead and plant their fields.
“We still have a chance to do it,” Dr. Peel said. “We are cutting into the grazing window with every week that passes dry, but if we can get some cooler temperatures and moisture, we still have a chance to see some wheat pasture for this winter.”
If there isn’t adequate winter wheat to graze, the market rate will certainly be affected. Lack of demand and the young ages of the calves generally seen this time of the year have already caused some weakness in the local calf auctions.
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