The Oklahoma State University Agricultural Economics Department hosted the Rural Economic Outlook Conference at the ConocoPhillips Alumni Center on the OSU campus yesterday, Wednesday, October 16, 2024. Farm Director KC Sheperd got to talk with OSU’s John Michael Riley about the latest in grain markets.
“It’s not the prettiest of days in grain markets,” Riley said. “Prices for all of our grains are under a lot of pressure. Production is outpacing demand. We are hitting some headwinds with trade as we look at a various number of factors, such as competition from overseas. In the Markets, we’ve had some strength in the dollar as of late, and compiling port issues for the export market that weren’t needed because there is enough pressure here domestically. All told it’s not the rosiest of outlooks concerning where we are at with corn, beans, and wheat – all of our grain markets.”
He observed that though there was a lot of apprehension about wheat early in the growing season, the crop improved as time went on; however, all of Oklahoma’s summer crops are under pressure.
“Cotton is probably in one of its worst years of the past five or so,” Riley stated. “Yields are not the best because of the dry conditions here in the state, and on top of that, you’ve got all of the pressures that exist in the grain market spilling over into cotton. Normally, you would have a natural hedge in some respects: when you have a bad growing year, you might have stronger prices. That is just not the case this year with cotton.”
Regarding wheat planting, he said, “There is a tremendous amount of risk when you put that seed in the ground with the soil moisture conditions where they are at. It’s not something I would want to face, and I’m encouraged by the resiliency of farmers here in Oklahoma.”
He advised wheat producers to focus on managing their costs.
He admitted that the latest WASDE report was rather mundane with no surprises. “For the most part, it was a report that we were expecting which is normal for this time of year. As we get into the harvest season, we know a lot more about what that crop looks like, and certainly, now, with a lot of test trials being run up in the northern parts of the U.S., and a lot of harvest already happening in the southern parts of the U.S., we know a lot more about the crop so these reports are generally better received,” he concluded.
