Nov. 5 — election day — is fast approaching. A few weeks ago, we asked which candidate do you believe will have a more positive impact on farming policy programs, trade, biofuels policies and inflation.
Based on 4,776 respondents, here are the results:
We also asked about the candidate’s impact on agriculture overall. Here’s that breakdown by state. Make note of the seven swing states, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, outlined in black.
Farmer Rationale On Harris Vs. Trump
While various polls suggest Trump has a clear edge among rural voters and there’s significant support for Trump among farmers, Jim Wiesemeyer, Farm Journal Washington correspondent, is quick to remind the community is not uniform in its voting intentions, with policy preferences and personal values driving individual decisions.
In general terms, Wiesemeyer says farmers support Trump because they:
- Believe Trump better understands rural America and agricultural issues
- Are concerned about his trade policies and confrontation with China
- Have concerns about border security and illegal immigration under the current Biden/Harris administration
- Are of the opinion Trump will lower costs for farmers, especially related to energy
- Oppose what they view as socialist or anti-American policies from Democrats
Farmers support Harris because they:
- Back environmental policies and renewable energy
- Approve of the Biden/Harris administration’s efforts to strengthen farm workers’ rights
- Believe in Harris’ food and nutrition policies
- Support Harris’ economic policies aimed at working-class Americans
Economists’ Views On Harris Vs. Trump
The September Ag Economists Monthly Monitor, a Farm Journal survey of nearly 70 ag economists, revealed a more mixed view of the presidential candidates’ impact on trade.
When asked if a Harris or Trump administration would help or hurt trade, the survey found the following:
“Farmers are definitely concerned about trade,” says Michael Langemeir, an agricultural economist from Purdue University who helps author the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer and is one of the economists surveyed by Farm Journal each month. “We don’t ask specific questions related to tariffs in the Ag Economy Barometer, but one question we do ask is if they expect exports to increase, decrease or stay the same? Really, this is the most pessimistic they’ve been for about five years with regard to trade.”
Tariffs are a tool both the former Trump administration and the current Biden/Harris administration have used.
During the first presidential debate, Trump didn’t waver from his staunch stance on tariffs and trade, reiterating his plan to use tariffs to protect U.S. industries and increase revenues. Trump reinforced his plan to impose a 10% tariff on all imported goods and a 60% tariff on goods from China.
During the debate, Harris stated tariffs are essentially a “sales tax” on American households. The Biden/Harris administration recently extended the Trump-era tariffs, while also imposing its own set of tariffs in May. Biden directed the U.S. Trade Representative to “increase tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 on $18 billion of imports from China to protect American workers and businesses.”
“That’s why I get really worried when both candidates start talking about tariffs. It’s really uncharted waters, if you will. There’s already the perception we’re struggling a little bit with trade. As we enter these uncertain waters, we’re going to struggle more,” Langemeier explains.
Do Tariffs Work?
The controversy over tariffs and if they’re a good trade policy tool is long standing. The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists: “Do tariffs work in trade policy?” Economists views were mixed:
- “Tariffs can work in trade policy — that’s why nations continue to use them. The complex part that extends beyond the tariff action is potential long-term repercussions that can result from trade flow changes.”
- “In limited cases, typically only if they result in a policy response in the targeted country. Much of the time, tariffs are like cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face.”
- “Tariffs provide short-term gains but have always failed relative to free trade in the long term.”
- “Absolutely, when properly applied.”
- “Not over the long term. They tend to affect who gets to supply different markets around the world.”
The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor also asked: “When tariffs are used as a ‘tool’ in trade, who pays the tariff?” Not all economists were aligned on that answer either, saying sometimes it’s farmers and consumers, but it can also be the exporting countries.
- “When the U.S. imposes tariffs on imports, importers in the U.S. pay taxes to the U.S. government on their purchases from abroad. When another nation imposes tariffs, importers in that nation pay import taxes to their government on their purchases from abroad. Often when a tariff is implemented, another nation retaliates, and you end up with importers in both nations paying the price on whatever products the tariffs apply toward.”
- “If an importing country places a tariff on the exporting country, producers in the exporting country and consumers in the importing country both lose (i.e., receive lower and higher prices, respectively). Conversely, producers in the importing country and consumers in the exporting country win (i.e., receive higher and lower prices, respectively).”
- “In the short run, consumers who purchase goods with a tariff might see higher prices if the tariff is not absorbed elsewhere. In the long run, the tariff might result in changes to the supply chain that result in higher prices but also create other economic opportunities in America (e.g. reshoring of domestic manufacturing).”
- “The correct economist answer is ‘it depends.’ Tariffs drive a wedge between prices in the exporting country and in the importing country. It depends on the circumstances of particular markets and how much is reflected in higher prices in the importing country and reduced prices in the exporting country.”
- “Both the exporting nation and the importing consumer pay some portion of the tariff depending on who has more flexibility to adjust to trade barrier. If exporting countries can easily switch to supplying other markets, they won’t have to ‘pay.’ If consumers can easily find cheap substitute goods, they won’t have to pay.
Trump Threatens Tariffs on Deere
During a policy roundtable in Smithton, Penn., organized by the Protecting America Initiative last month, Trump made significant statements regarding John Deere and its plans to move some production to Mexico. Trump threatened to impose a 200% tariff on John Deere products if the company proceeds with its plan to relocate some of its manufacturing operations to Mexico.
Farm Journal asked economists the likely outcome if Trump did follow through with tariffs. Here’s what they said:
Pics and Article Courtesy of AgWeb Farm Journal:
