On November 22, 2024, the Chief Veterinary Officer of Mexico notified the United States Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of a positive detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Mexico. Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays talked to OSU Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel about the disruption of feeder cattle coming into the U.S. from Mexico.
Dr. Peel said that the U.S. typically imports cattle from Mexico throughout the year, but on average 22% of the total number of Mexican cattle are brought in during the months of November and December.
“We’ve been on a pretty good pace this year, in terms of the numbers coming in,” Dr. Peel noted. “This disruption will take out the last six weeks or so of imports, and I think that will reduce our annual total imports by roughly eighteen percent.”
The disruption is likely to impact the feed supply and cattle on feed numbers, but Dr. Peel doesn’t anticipate a huge impact.
“The Mexican cattle contribute to our total cattle supplies for the U.S., but they aren’t huge,” he said. “If you look at their numbers compared to our annual calf crop in the U.S., they are about 3 or 3.2 percent on average; however, in a tight supply market, any decrease in numbers will be noticeable.”
By the end of the year, Dr. Peel expects to see a decline of about 250,000 to 300,000 fewer imported cattle but says it will only serve to add additional support to an already strong feeder market. Although the Mexican imports are generally lighter weights this time of the year, he noted that feedlots are starting them smaller to maintain their numbers with today’s tight supplies. Dr. Peel expects to see a decrease in available placement numbers relatively quickly, and later the decrease will occur when the light calves would have been moving out of a backgrounding program into the feedlot system.
When the border is opened back up to northward moving cattle, USDA will have implemented additional inspection and quarantine protocols. “The initial steps will be to get the facilities identified and approved by USDA,” Dr. Peel said. “Cattle inside Mexico will go to those facilities, get an additional screening on the Mexican side, then be given ivermectin to clear any parasites and quarantined for seven days.”
After the quarantine, the cattle will go through the normal border process which includes another inspection and being dipped for other pests.
In a previous article, Dr. Peel said it will take most of December to get up and running when it comes to feeder cattle being imported from Mexico into the United States. “Essentially, it means that we may not get any cattle for the rest of 2024,” he stated. “By the time you get that process in place and go through the initial quarantine. We might be in place to pick it back up, at least partially, going into next year.”
The Santa Teresa Port of Entry is an important corridor in the movement of cattle across the border but due to the quality of existing facilities, it should be able to set up for the extra protocols relatively quickly. (the Santa Teresa Port is just west of El Paso and is in New Mexico)
“That is where the bulk of the cattle typically come across,” Dr. Peel said.
Cattle futures markets have already risen as the uncertainty of the crisis in Mexico is sorted out. “I think it will probably pull back a little bit from this initial premium that we see in the futures market, but again, the feeder cattle market has been really strong in November anyway with the reality of cattle numbers in the U.S. This will continue that support, so I think we will continue to see an extremely strong market and this will certainly add a little bit to that.”
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