Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster, Ron Hays caught up with the president and CEO of the United States Meat Export Federation, Dan Halstrom, and talked about the U.S. beef export market in 2024, and what he sees for the year 2025.
Halstrom estimates that beef export volume will be down, but value will be up five or six percent. This year was the second-largest export year ever, just behind 2022. “A year ago, when we were talking about estimates for 2024, we never would have thought we would be anywhere close to that,” Halstrom said. “In that regard, we are excited about what is going on.”
Latin America is one of the U.S.’s biggest consumers, and while Asia struggled early in the year, it is strengthening with the rebound of food service and tourism. Exports to Japan are steady from a year ago with a record-strong dollar, a publicly weak economy, and suffering food service.
“Early in the year, we were down ten or eleven percent, so to be able to claw back to where we were a year ago is a testament to the importance of that market in Japan,” he said.
In China, Halstrom said that the consumer is under some stress, and beef exports are down slightly there. “We are still going to be $1.7 – $1.8 billion market this year, so to me, we aren’t trying to appeal to all of the people in China,” Halstrom said. “We are really only looking at the upper-middle class, so higher-end food service and retail, like Costco and Sam’s Club. We aren’t ignoring China – it is very important to us – but in the meantime, we are investing in other regions of the world to try to diversify.”
The meat export business points to Central America, namely Guatemala, as a success story. “We’ve been running, for the last few months, $320 to $340 on the choice cut out,” Halstrom stated. “Which is unheard of levels for places like Mexico and Guatemala. Previously, if we approached $290 – $300 per hundredweight on a choice cut out, they’d stop buying, but they continue to buy.”
To Halstrom, this indicates that Central America is beginning to appreciate quality and following the market through its highs and lows.
U.S. beef and pork are also gaining traction in Southeast Asia.
Exports to Mexico are approaching a billion-dollar industry, and specifically, pork exports to Mexico are record-breaking. “That relationship on red meat, is very strong,” Halstrom shared. “Our economies are really interlinked. Their reliance on beef and pork is to the point where, if there is a disruption, it will have a massive economic impact on them, as it would us.”
Halstrom added that while only 15% of the U.S.’s meat production is exported, the value implications are much higher. He said, “This is really turning into a global market where we need all things clicking, not only domestically but internationally as well.”
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