Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays talked to OSU Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel after the latest USDA Cattle of Feed Report was released on Friday afternoon, and
According to Dr. Peel, November placements were down 3.7%, marketings were down 1.4%, which equates to the total cattle on feed number being fractionally less than 0.5% less than a year ago.
“This report was almost right on the nose with the pre-report expectations, so certainly no surprises,” Dr. Peel said. “It shouldn’t provoke any market response.”
He noted that the marketing numbers were slightly lower than a year ago, but with one less business day in November, the adjusted average marketings for the month were just a bit higher than a year ago.
“We’ve continued to market cattle timely, we know carcass weights are way up, and there are times in our history when that indicated that feedlots were getting backed up or not marketing in a timely fashion, but that is certainly not true, now. We are doing this on purpose because of current market conditions,” Dr. Peel said.
About those market conditions, he said that numbers are tight so feedlots are doing what they can to maintain their inventories. Consistently strong feeder markets have brought more feeders to town which helps them continue to maintain their numbers.
He estimates that this year’s total beef production will be slightly down from a year ago, while USDA and some others have it up meaning that however it changes, it won’t likely be by much.
“Some of that is because we didn’t drop steer and heifer slaughter as much as we expected,” he explained. “Steer slaughter is up slightly, and heifer slaughter is down slightly, but the big change was the increase in carcass weights with the pounds offsetting that, so we are actually seeing an increase in fed beef production. However, we are seeing a tremendous decrease in the non-fed side with cow slaughter being down sharply this year. All of that has to be factored into the market.”
Dr. Peel expects a smaller beef cow inventory in the late January Cattle Inventory Report. He said, “When you look at the heifers versus the cows, we brought in a very small inventory of bred heifers into 2024, and even though cow slaughter has dropped sharply this year, in terms of a net culling rate, it still isn’t down to a range that would suggest that we are trying to expand the herd, and we don’t have the heifers.”
He warned that the feeder supply will likely continue to get tighter in the countryside, especially when herd rebuilding begins to lessen the number of heifers on feed.
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