Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays talked to OSU Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel about market expectations for 2025.
When discussing the 2025 Cattle Inventory Report to be released in the latter part of January, Dr. Peel expects beef replacement heifers to be up only marginally because heifer slaughter rates and heifer-on-feed inventories have remained strong.
The final quarter of 2024 hosted the highest prices of the year for all classes of cattle, which caused a tremendous rally at auctions. “If you look at the feeder cattle auction volumes in Oklahoma, they have been really strong, particularly in December,” Dr. Peel noted. “With this big run-up in prices, people are basically selling whatever they have available to take advantage of this market. That is certainly good for them in the short run, but it carries the implications of what we will be able to do in the future.”
With prices as they are, making the decision to rebuild the herd is a tough one for producers to make. “At some point, they have to ask themselves about the future and where they want to be positioned with their herd, two or three years down the road. What are their expectations about the market? At some point, I think we will turn the corner, but a lot of it is going to depend on forage and drought conditions in the country.”
If next spring’s forage conditions look good, Dr. Peel expects to see signs of heifer retention beginning.
“We have had two years of good prices, but as we look ahead, we are expecting these prices to stay strong and perhaps a little stronger in 2025, and producers have to think about how you can’t take advantage of these markets if you don’t have something to sell,” Dr. Peel said. “You have to plan your production from that standpoint, and ask what is the status of your herd and whether you need to make any changes in that given whatever drought or forage conditions you might be facing.”
He added that even though prices are high and most operations will be profitable in 2025, costs such as grazing management and input costs are where producers have the most control. He suggested taking advantage of opportunities to enhance revenues by having the most calves available to sell in the current market.
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