Latest WASDE shows largest Soybean Production Decline, 2nd Largest Corn Production decline, and Lower Consumption/Higher Ending Stocks for Wheat

USDA released its Crop Production Annual Summary, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), Dec. 1 Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings reports on Friday. Farm Director KC Sheperd caught up with Rich Nelson at Allendale to get the details.

The most significant surprise was a sharp decline in US corn production by a staggering 276 million bushels. U.S. Corn ending stocks dropped almost 200 million bushels to 1.5 million bushels. This, coupled with a 90-million-bushel drop in US soybean ending stocks, tightened the market significantly.

“Over the past seven months, we’ve gone from a heavy supply year, to now, we are more or less back to normal,” Nelson noted.

While corn and soybeans saw major adjustments, the US wheat ending stocks remained unchanged, leaving the market relatively unfazed. The cotton report fell slightly short of market expectations, leading to a reassessment of market strategies by industry stakeholders.

Agricultural analysts are now closely examining winter wheat seeding data to assess its potential impact on spring crop planting estimates, and the USDA will continue to monitor Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports for potential adjustments in future reports.

The livestock report projected increased hog production in 2025, requiring the industry to prepare for this shift. “Our viewpoint going into 2025, is USDA now looks for a 2.6 percent increase overall. So this does balance out, some of the tightened beef supply discussion,” Nelson commented.

You can also view the full reports here:

— Crop Production Annual Summary, Grains Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

The recent USDA January report sent shockwaves through the agricultural markets, prompting immediate responses from industry players

WHEAT

The agency estimates U.S. wheat ending stocks at 798 million bushels, up from 795 mb in December’s report.

Seed demand is pegged at 64 mb, an increase from 62 mb in December. Feed and residual use is estimated at 120 mb, unchanged from December.

Domestic use was estimated at 2.0 billion bushels, up from December’s estimate of 1.998 bb. Exports are estimated at 850 mb, unchanged from last month. The farmgate price is estimated at $5.55, down from $5.60 last month.

From the Grain Stocks report, wheat stored in all positions on Dec. 1 totaled 1.57 bb, up 10% from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 467 million bushels, up 16% from last December.

Off-farm stocks, at 1.1 bb, are up 8% from a year ago. The quarterly indicated use is 423 mb, 22% above the same period a year earlier.

Globally, ending stocks were pegged at 258.82 million metric tons, an increase from 257.88 mmt in December.

Exports are estimated at 46.0 mmt for Russia, a decrease from 47.0 mmt last month, and 16.0 mmt for Ukraine, slightly down from 16.5 mmt in December.

Production in Australia was estimated at 32.0 mmt, unchanged from December. Production in Argentina was estimated at 17.5 mmt, unchanged from last month.

WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS

Planted area for harvest in 2025 is estimated at 34.1 million acres, up 2% from 2024 but down 7% from 2023. A record-low planted area is expected in Utah. Seeding of the 2025 acreage was underway in early September.

By Oct. 20, producers had sown 73% of the intended 2025 winter wheat acreage, 1 percentage point behind the previous year and 3 percentage points behind the five-year average.

Nationwide, 46% of the winter wheat acreage had emerged by Oct. 20, which was 3 percentage points behind the previous year and 4 percentage points behind the five-year average.

Throughout much of the season, planting progressed on pace with the five-year average and reached 97% complete by Nov. 24. Emergence was 1 percentage point behind last year but equal to the five-year average pace on Nov. 24.

Hard red winter wheat seeded area is expected to total 24.0 million acres, up 1% from 2024. The largest increases in planted acreage are estimated in Montana and Texas, while Kansas is estimated to have a decrease.

Soft red winter wheat seeded area totals 6.44 million acres, up 6% from last year. Compared with last year, the largest acreage increases are expected in Michigan and Ohio, while the largest acreage decreases are expected in Kentucky and Missouri.

White winter wheat-seeded area totals 3.64 million acres, up 3% from 2024. No states in the region are expecting decreased acreage.

CORN

Corn production for the 2024-25 crop was lowered to 14.867 billion bushels, down 276 million bushels from last month. USDA cut the national yield to 179.3 bushels per acre, down 3.8 bpa. Harvested acres were raised to 200,000 acres to 82.9 million acres.

For demand, projected total Feed and Residual use is 5.775 bb, down 50 mb from last month. Ethanol use is forecast at 5.5 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.665 bb, down 50 mb.

Corn exports are pegged at 2.45 bb, down 25 mb from December.

Ending stocks for the 2024-25 crop were 1.54 bb, down 198 mb, and below the pre-report average.

The quarterly Grain Stocks report for corn showed stocks in all positions on Dec. 1, 2024, totaled 12.1 bb, down 1% from a year ago and just below the pre-report average. Of total stocks, 7.66 bb were stored on farms, down 2% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were 4.41 bb, up 2% from a year ago. Usage for the quarter from September-November came in at 4.56 bb, compared to 4.53 bb for the same quarter last year.

The farmgate price for 2024-25 was $4.25 a bushel, up 15 cents.

Globally, 2024-25 corn beginning stocks came in at 317.46 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.24 mmt from last month. Global ending stocks were pegged at 293.34 mmt, down 3.1 mmt. USDA held pat on 2024-25 Brazil’s corn production at 127 mmt but lowered exports 1 mmt to 47 mmt. Argentina is pegged at 51 mmt production with 36 mmt of exports.

For the global 2023-24 crop, USDA also held Brazil’s production at 122 mmt, but exports were lowered 2 mmt to 39.5 mmt. USDA maintained Argentina’s production at 50 mmt, but raised exports 1 mmt to 34 mmt.

SOYBEANS

USDA trimmed 2024 soybean yield by 1 bpa to 50.7 bpa. It also lowered harvested acreage from 86.3 million to 86.1 million acres, resulting in total production of 4.366 bb. That’s 95 million bushels less than November’s forecast and below the range of pre-report expectations.

The production cut was the largest contributor to USDA’s lower ending stocks forecast for the 2024-25 marketing year, which was 90 mb less than last month at 380 mb. USDA forecast 5 mb more imports and 1 mb increased residual use.

The national average farm gate price was left unchanged at $10.20.

In its quarterly Grain Stocks report, USDA pegged soybean supplies on hand at 3.1 bb, up 3% from 2023. Stocks stored on-farms totaled 1.54 bb, up 6% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks stood at 1.56 bb, up 1% from last year. The quarterly indicated usage totaled 1.61 bb, up 13% from the same time period in 2023.

Globally, USDA cut 2024-25 ending stocks by 3.5 million metric tons to 128.37 mmt, reflecting the changes to U.S. supply, although it sees imports climbing 1.06 mmt and crush increasing 1.87 mmt It left Brazil and Argentina’s production levels unchanged at 169 mmt and 52 mmt, respectively.

COTTON:

For the 2024/25 U.S. cotton balance sheet, production and ending stocks are increased while exports are reduced. Domestic use and beginning stocks are unchanged. The U.S. all-cotton production is revised upward 159,000 bales to 14.4 million as the national all-cotton yield estimate is raised 44 pounds to 836 pounds per harvested acre, reflecting a larger crop and lower harvested area. Most of the reduction in harvested area occurred in the Southwest while yields in numerous Southeast, Delta, and Southwest
States are expected to be higher. Projected exports are lowered 300,000 bales to 11.0 million. Ending stocks are raised to 4.8 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of about 38 percent. The 2024/25 season average upland farm price is reduced to 65 cents per pound.

Global production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are raised in the 2024/25 world cotton balance sheet while beginning stocks are unchanged. World production for 2024/25 is increased just over 2 million bales to 119.4 million, largely the result of a 1.8- million-bale increase for China’s crop. Larger crops are also projected for Australia and the United States while production in Pakistan is reduced. World consumption is raised 100,000 bales as increases in Bangladesh and Vietnam more than offset a reduction for Turkey. Projected exports are raised 225,000 bales as increases for Brazil, Australia, and India exceed the reduction for the United States. Ending stocks are increased almost 1.9 million bales as increases in China, the United States, Australia, and India more than offset the reduction for Brazil.

LIVESTOCK

Friday’s WASDE report was mostly supportive for the cattle and beef markets in 2025.

Red meat and poultry production for 2024 is lowered from last month due to lower beef, pork, broiler, and turkey production in the fourth quarter. Changes in the estimates reflect November production data and
preliminary estimates of slaughter numbers and weights for December. Egg production is lowered based on reductions of the layer flock as a result of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling reported in December.

For 2025, the beef forecast is raised on an increase in steer and heifer slaughter due to higher placements expected during the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as higher dressed weights. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be released January 31, will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2025 as well as producer intentions for retaining heifers for addition to the breeding herd. Pork production is raised reflecting pig crop and farrowings data for the second half of 2024 and the first half of
2025 published in the December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Broiler production is lowered based on recent slaughter data indicating lower-than-previously expected weights. Turkey production is lowered for the first half of 2025 based on recent hatchery data and HPAI-related culling through early January. Egg production is also lowered due to reductions of the layer flock as a result of HPAI-related culling. Beef import and export estimates for 2024 are raised on recent trade data. For 2025, beef imports are raised largely on continued strong shipments of beef from Oceania and South America.

The 2025 beef export forecast is unchanged. Pork exports for 2024 are lowered based on recent trade data, but exports for 2025 are unchanged. Broiler exports in 2024 are lowered on recent trade data. Broiler exports for 2025 are also lowered on lower available supplies and strong price competition. Turkey exports are lowered for 2024 and 2025 on the recent trade data and lower domestic supplies.

Price estimates for 2024 are adjusted to reflect December data. For 2025, cattle prices are raised on recent prices and continued strong demand for cattle and beef. Hog prices are raised in 2025 supported by higher cattle and poultry prices. Broiler prices in 2025 are projected higher on lowered supplies and as stronger prices in late 2024 are expected to carry over into 2025. Turkey prices for 2025 are lowered with lower prices in late 2024 carrying over into 2025. Egg prices for 2025 are raised on recent HPAI outbreaks’ impacts on recent prices during the first quarter, as well as the implications on the flock size for the remainder of 2025.

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