WASDE Report: Old Crop Corn Exports Surge, Wheat Shipments a Concern

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, offering insights into the current and future state of key agricultural commodities. Farm Director KC Sheperd discussed the report’s findings with Rich Nelson from Allendale, uncovering some notable shifts and potential future trends.  

“You know, we certainly did,” Nelson stated when asked about surprises in the April report. He pointed out that for an April report, significant movement wasn’t largely anticipated. However, the USDA presented a “maybe more aggressive than we expected to see old crop corn stocks,” lowering them from 1.540 billion bushels last month to 1.465 billion bushels in the current report.

Despite ongoing trade discussions and concerns, Nelson highlighted a significant development in the corn sector. “USDA was very aggressive in raising old crop corn exports in this report, so strong numbers as far as that goes.” In contrast, the report left South American corn production in Argentina and Brazil unchanged, which Nelson noted is “where most of the trade currently is at, right now as well. So no surprises on that end.” Similarly, the outlook for China’s corn remained consistent.

Turning to soybeans, the old crop saw a minor adjustment in stocks, decreasing from 380 million bushels to 375 million bushels. Regarding exports, Nelson commented, “USDA left their export numbers unchanged for old crop. That’s relatively reasonable. Keep in mind, it won’t be till we get into June that we can have a better concern regarding the new crop export sales pace.” Similar to corn, South American soybean production and China’s import view remained unchanged in this report.

The wheat sector presented some “moderate surprises,” according to Nelson. “USDA raised old crop wheat stocks from eight 819 million bushels last month, now 846.” This increase was accompanied by a reduction in export sales. “And their concern right now is, though we’ve got some very good sales in mind, about shipments, because maybe some of these shipments won’t be pushed out, or may be pushed into the new crop year.” Overall, Nelson summarized the report as a supportive report for corn, and the soybean side had lower stocks. He said, “There is no change on old crop exports. And as far as wheat goes, USDA did address some concerns regarding shipments of this oil product here.”

Looking ahead, Nelson addressed the impact of weather concerns, particularly droughts in Ukraine and Russia. “That’s all going to start on next month’s report, next month for the May numbers, that’s when USD gives full balance sheets for the new crop picture here for the US as well as all their numbers for that, for the old world side as well.” He also noted confirmed lower old crop exports from Ukraine and Russia but a lack of significant demand for US supplies.

The 90-day pause on tariffs, excluding China, was also discussed. Nelson explained the trade’s perspective: “There’s some hopes that we’ll get some deals lined up for these next big names here. So Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Those should be easy discussions. European Union, the past few days has added some new tariff discussions for corn and delayed some discussion for soybean tariffs for right now, though. They’re also on a pause for this new round of tariff discussions.” He concluded that “in the market’s mind, the last straw is really China,” with no movement on this issue reported yet.

In the cotton market, Nelson noted a slight increase in old crop ending stocks, moving from 4.9 million bales to 5.0 million bales. He anticipates significant interest in the new crop numbers to be released in the May report, especially following a “good drop in new crop acres.”

Regarding the upcoming May report, which will focus on the 2025-2026 season, Nelson stated, “This is going to be where we’re going to be trimming some stocks and maybe getting some concern put back in these markets, especially with this concern about this moisture here in the southern US, southern plains, which is getting a lot of interest right now as well.” He also highlighted the removal of previously forecasted rains for Oklahoma and Texas, raising concerns about a potentially dry spring.

The livestock sector saw minor changes for beef, with USDA adding a slight 15 million pounds to their production forecast, resulting in an overall unchanged outlook with a minor 1.1% decline year-over-year. The focus, however, was on pork. “On this report, USDA cut a very good 350 million pounds out of their prior production view. So they went from a 2.3% increase in pork production, and now they’re saying a 1.0% increase. So we certainly have trimmed up the concern on the pork side in these past few weeks here.”

In conclusion, Nelson anticipates the next WASDE report to be “full of lots of news.” He noted that for the current report, “USDA is probably not going to address a lot of these export sales concerns” for grains and will likely take a “wait and see approach” on new crop numbers until June or July.

For those seeking more in-depth analysis, Rich Nelson can be reached at 1-800-262-7538 or through the Allendale website at Allendalehub.com.

You can also view the full reports here:

— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

WHEAT

USDA estimates increased U.S. wheat ending stocks for the 2024-2025 season at 846 million bushels from 819 mb in March. USDA cut total use by 17 million bushels, down from 1.989 mb last month.

Imports were increased from 140 mb to 150 mb in April, while USDA trimmed exports by 15 mb.

Average wheat farm gate price was estimated at $5.50 per bushel, unchanged from March.

Globally, 2024-25 wheat ending stocks were estimated at 260.7 million metric tons, increased from 260.08 mmt in the March estimate.

In South America, USDA estimates Argentina’s ending stocks at 4.44 mmt, a slight decrease from 4.5 mmt in March. Brazil’s ending stocks are estimated at 1.48 mmt. Australian ending stocks were estimated at 3.72 mmt, up from 3.22 mmt last month.

Ukrainian ending stocks are estimated at 1.49 mmt, a decrease from 1.69 mmt in March. Russian ending stocks were bumped up from 10.34 mmt to 11.34 mmt.

USDA estimated Russian exports at 44.0 mmt, a drop from 45.0 mmt in March. Ukraine’s exports were pegged at 16.0 mmt, down from 15.5 mmt in March.

On the imports side of the balance sheet, USDA estimated China at 3.5 mmt, down from 6.5 mmt in March.

CORN

The big changes in domestic corn came in demand as production numbers and old-crop carryover held pat.

Corn production for the 2024-25 crop was held at 14.867 billion bushels. USDA held the national yield at 179.3 bushels per acre. Harvested acres were 82.9 million.

For demand, projected total Feed and Residual use is 5.75 bb, down 25 million bushels. Ethanol use is forecast at 5.5 bb, the same as last month. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.64 bb, down 25 mb.

Corn exports are pegged at 2.55 bb, up 100 mb from March.

Ending stocks for the 2024-25 crop were 1.465 bb, down 75 mb from March.

The farmgate price for 2024-25 was $4.35 a bushel, the same as last month.

Globally, USDA also held pat on production for both Brazil and Argentina. Brazil’s production was held at 126 million metric tons (mmt) and exports held at 44 mmt. Argentina’s production was maintained at 50 mmt and exports at 36 mmt. Trade analysts had expected slightly lower production in Argentina.

Globally, 2024-25 corn beginning stocks came in at 314.33 million metric tons, up 0.38 mmt. Global ending stocks were pegged at 287.65 mmt, down 1.29 mmt. USDA raised global exports 2.32 mmt to 188.68 mmt.

SOYBEANS

USDA lowered ending stocks for the old-crop 2024-25 by 5 million bushels to 375 mb, within the range of pre-report expectations. USDA got there by making numerous small changes.

Soybean production was unchanged, but imports climbed by 5 mb to 25 mb. That raised overall supply to 4.734 bb. Crush use is 10 mb higher. USDA shifted 3 mb from seed use and instead plugged it into the residual category. The result was 10 mb more total usage, at 4.359 bb, and a 5-mb reduction to ending stocks. The national average farm gate price was unchanged at $9.95 per bushel.

Globally, USDA boosted ending stocks by 1.06 million metric tons to 122.47 mmt. Brazil and Argentina production was left unchanged at 169 mmt and 49 mmt, respectively.

For the 2023-24 marketing year, USDA raised Brazilian production by 1.5 mmt to 154.5 mmt, reflecting a review of usage data.

In the report summary, USDA notes some tariff impacts for soybean oil, noting that soybean exports for oil are forecast higher on export sales data, but domestic use of bean oil for biofuel is forecast lower due to the pace of use. “However, stronger use is forecast for the last part of the marketing year due to tariffs impacting imports of other biofuel feedstocks, like used cooking oil,” the report stated.

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.