Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays is attending the 10th Annual Hemphill County Beef Conference in Canadian, Texas, and had the chance to speak with Atmospheric Scientist Matt Makens, who provided a weather outlook for attending producers. In this conversation, the two men are discussing the likelihood of either an El Niño or La Niña weather system dominating.
Makens advised attendees to enjoy the rain while it lasts because, despite it, they are already in a La Niña system. “It’s La Niña; she’s in charge, and she will be for the rest of the year,” he said.
According to Makens, if history repeats itself, La Niña will be in charge well into 2026, which means drought for agricultural producers in the South. He advised producers to appreciate the water they are receiving now because it is abnormal to the expected long-term trend.
“You are going to have to have precipitation timed out very well,” he said. “Rather than having plenty of it, it needs to come on the day you need it. That’s a La Niña.”
Makens examined the USDA’s pasture and range conditions index and compared this year with the previous five years. He determined that pastures and ranges are healthier now than they have been for the past five years and will likely remain healthier for some time.
“It’s a valuable tool to relate what La Niña means for the grass,” he said. “That is a better way to do it.”
Hays pointed out how critical this time of the year is to hay production for the next 12 months, and Makens broadened the scope. “On another token, look at your wheat,” he said. “If you didn’t have that early November water in Oklahoma, where would that wheat have been in January and February when you got the cold. What would it look like today? Now, you are getting another well-timed system for your hay. Somebody is praying in Oklahoma, and their prayers are very well-timed for wheat and hay. The outlook for the next four weeks is relatively favorable for hay producers across the region.”
He cautioned that May through September may be drier than average for most of the Southern Plains. Looking into fall wheat planting, Makens said, “When you have a La Niña coming back, that moisture you get – whether in late October or November – you dusted in your wheat, that timing has to be on, and in La Niña there is no guarantee that there is going to be that water.”
He advised producers to look for ongoing impacts late in the year and to consider their Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF), and Annual Forage (AF) coverages, because drought is more prevalent in La Niña systems than moisture.
The Northern Plains are already in real trouble. The area including Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Montana is lacking soil moisture already and hasn’t received much rain so far this year. According to the USDA pasture and range conditions index, the region is likely in one of its worst outlooks for pasture and grass health this year. The drought is also impacting Southern Canada, and much further South, Mexico is also in the midst of a devastating drought.
“For the beef industry across North America, this is a drought headline kind of year,” Makens summarized.
Click here to listen to and read about Maken’s explanation of the significant amounts of rainfall currently falling on the Southern Plains at this time.
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