Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays talked to OSU Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel after the most recent USDA Cattle-on-Feed Report was released in late May, and Dr. Peel analyzed the likely attitudes of cow calf producers in the countryside. Click here to listen to the first part of their conversation in which Dr. Peel evaluated the number of cattle on feed.
He noted that the only real data point suggesting that rebuilding may be starting is that the heifers on feed number in the April report was at the lowest it has been in five years. “Heifer slaughter in the last five weeks has dropped more significantly; steers have too, for that matter,” he said. “If you put heifer and cow slaughter together and think about female slaughter as a percent of total cattle slaughter, it continues to come down. It is still well above levels that would confirm that we are actively rebuilding the herd, but we are certainly moving in that direction.”
His suspicions have been confirmed anecdotally by producers in the countryside and by lenders observing greater interest in retaining heifers and beginning to repopulate herds. This interest has been helped by improved forage conditions over the past six weeks and the availability of pond water. He acknowledged the drought remaining in the northern states, which will slow progress on a total basis.
“I think it will be a relatively slow pace, but I do think we are getting started with some heifer retention and beginning the process that eventually will lead to some herd rebuilding,” Dr. Peel shared.
According to Peel, significant beef production won’t increase until 2028, and beef supply will be squeezed even tighter in the meantime as fewer cows and heifers enter the pipeline.
Dr. Peel admitted that the implementation of herd rebuilding will look different for each producer and will likely be challenging for many. “If you are going to do it, you want to do it sooner rather than later, but exactly how you do that is going to depend on the specific situation, in terms of saving your own heifers or going out and buying heifers; it’s an individual situation, but you certainly can’t take advantage of the market we have and are going to have for at least a couple more years, if you aren’t producing calves to sell.”
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
