Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, offers his economic analysis of the beef cattle industry as part of the weekly series known as the “Cow Calf Corner,” published electronically by Dr. Peel, Mark Johnson, and Paul Beck. Today, Dr. Peel discusses herd rebuilding.
The January 1, 2025, beef cow inventory was 27.86 million head, down 0.5 percent from the previous year. Was 2025 the smallest cow herd inventory for the current cattle cycle? It is looking more likely that it might be the low. Herd growth this year depends on the amount of cow culling relative to the supply of bred heifers that will enter the herd during the year. Although the inventory of bred heifers was record low, beef cow slaughter is down 16.2 percent for the first 21 weeks of the year – indicating a low level of cow culling that might allow for a fractional increase in the beef cow herd this year.
Where would beef cow herd growth be most likely if it is beginning. The January data showed that seven of the top ten beef cow states had beef cow inventories that were unchanged or were up slightly. Missouri had two percent more beef cows while Texas, Oklahoma, Montana and North Dakota were up one percent year over year. Kansas and Florida had the same number of beef cows as the year prior. Moreover, while the total beef replacement heifer inventory was down one percent year over year, several states had heifer inventories that were up, including Kansas, up 3 percent, and Oklahoma and South Dakota up two percent from the previous year. Montana, Missouri, North Dakota, Wyoming and Florida had beef replacement heifer inventories unchanged from the prior year. It would appear that a number of major beef cow states are interested in herd rebuilding.
However, forage conditions continue to be a limiting factor in some regions. The latest Drought Monitor (Figure 1) shows that the central and northern Plains and much of the Rocky Mountain regions are still struggling with drought.
Current reported range conditions show that 51 percent of Montana and 42 percent of Nebraska pastures and ranges are in poor to very poor condition. Additionally, 38 percent of Wyoming and 24 percent of South Dakota ranges are in poor to very poor condition. Texas reports 30 percent poor to very poor pastures, confined to the southwest part of the state. At the other extreme, Missouri reports just 1 percent of pastures in poor to very poor condition, along with Oklahoma at six percent. Among the top ten beef cow states, Kentucky also reports just five percent of pastures in poor to very poor condition. Drought is not a factor across much of the Gulf Coast, Appalachian, and Southeast regions (with the exception of Florida).
Though there is no data confirmation yet, it seems likely that heifer retention may be underway in several areas including the Southern Plains and points east. However, it is doubtful that much aggressive restocking or herd rebuilding is in progress in several major beef cow states from Nebraska north and west. In total it is likely to still be a slow pace of herd rebuilding.
Derrell Peel, OSU Extension livestock specialist, discusses how beef production has declined significantly since April affecting beef prices on SunUpTV from June 14, 2025 at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iL8CfRDWP_M
