On this beef buzz, Dr. Derrell Peel, a livestock market economist, discussed the ongoing efforts to rebuild the U.S. beef cow herd with senior farm and ranch broadcaster Ron Hays. Peel noted that there is a gradual shift toward heifer retention, especially in drought-affected regions like the southern U.S., while areas like Montana are still focused on maintaining existing cattle numbers, some regions are beginning to hold back heifers as part of the rebuilding process. However, he cautioned that the pace of this retention remains slow and is expected to continue at a gradual rate in the near future.
Peel explained that while the U.S. beef cow herd hit a potential low point in January 2025, significant herd expansion is unlikely in the short term. The number of beef cows may stabilize, with only minimal growth expected over the next couple of years. “If that cow slaughter drops enough, then the supply of heifers might be sufficient to at least stabilize the beef cow herd.” He pointed out that the situation is different from 2014, when a strong pipeline of replacement heifers supported rapid herd expansion. Dr. Peel says that today, due to ongoing heifer slaughter, the industry essentially starts from zero in terms of heifer supply, which will require a few years to rebuild.
Dr. Peel further emphasized that the rebuilding process would take at least 2–3 years to show meaningful growth. Producers who choose to retain heifers for future breeding are starting almost from scratch, which means any expansion in herd numbers will be slow and limited in the short term. He noted that the lack of a significant pipeline for heifers creates additional challenges, especially compared to the more favorable conditions seen a decade ago.
Despite the slow pace of rebuilding, Dr. Peel acknowledged that producers are beginning to understand the long-term benefits of retaining heifers. For many, the immediate financial incentives of selling heifers have given way to a recognition that holding them is essential to maintaining herd productivity. If producers continue to retain heifers, it could help stabilize or eventually grow the herd, ensuring long-term sustainability for the beef industry.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR at the top of the story for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
