Farm director KC Sheperd spoke with Oklahoma State Climatologist Gary McManus who shared remarkably positive news regarding the state’s drought conditions, a welcome change from previous discussions. For the second consecutive month, Oklahoma is experiencing a complete absence of drought or even abnormally dry conditions, a phenomenon not seen since the spring of 2019. McManus highlighted that this lack of drought extends to surrounding states, preventing any dry spell from creeping back into Oklahoma, stating, “There’s just a little bit of dry weather over there in the… Eastern New Mexico. But you know, even that in my opinion, nowhere close to… encroaching on Oklahoma.” This widespread relief is considered “very unusual” but greatly appreciated.
Despite the current favorable conditions, McManus cautioned about the typical climatological shift as summer progresses, noting, “Other than our normal climatological pattern where we’re entering the summer, our rain should start to go away a little bit.” He explained that July and especially August are periods when “rapid drought development” can occur if temperatures significantly increase without accompanying rainfall. The focus for monitoring will be on “possible flash, drought, uh, development” if the expected summer drying trend takes hold and temperatures escalate into the mid-100s, turning the state into what he described as a “gigantic easy bake oven.”
The conversation also touched upon the excellent state of Oklahoma’s lakes and soil moisture. Many lakes in eastern Oklahoma are significantly above normal levels, some by “10 to 20 feet,” a stark contrast to recent years. While a few lakes are below normal due to specific management or irrigation uses, the overall picture shows the majority at or above their conservation pool levels. Furthermore, soil moisture is exceptionally high for this time of year, which is beneficial for keeping air temperatures cooler. McManus emphasized, “to have that soil moisture up as we get into July is always a great thing because that tends to keep us cooler.” Gary McManus underscored the significant benefits of high soil moisture levels, particularly as Oklahoma transitions into the hotter summer months. He explained that soil moisture acts as a natural cooling mechanism. When the sun’s rays hit the moist surface, the water evaporates, a process that absorbs heat and thus cools the surrounding air. “When the sun’s rays beat down on the surface and it hits that soil moisture, it evaporates that soil moisture, and that’s a cooling process,” McManus stated.
Conversely, a lack of soil moisture exacerbates heat. If the soil is dry, the sun’s energy, instead of being used for evaporation and cooling, goes directly into heating the surface. This leads to a detrimental “feedback mechanism” where the heated surface further warms the air above it. McManus vividly described this as transforming the state into a “gigantic easy bake oven,” emphasizing the critical role soil moisture plays in mitigating extreme summer temperatures. Therefore, having abundant soil moisture at this time of year is “certainly an unusual thing, but it is good for everybody involved,” as it helps to keep air temperatures down and provides a buffer against rapid drought development.
Looking ahead, McManus indicated that while it’s expected to heat up as July begins, this is typical for Oklahoma summers. There’s also a promising forecast for “a little bit, uh, more rainfall” over the upcoming weekend and early next week. These sporadic rains, coupled with increased cloud cover, are crucial in preventing the intense heat buildup associated with a “heat dome” and sinking air. Both the interviewer and McManus expressed their enjoyment of these “boring conversations” about a lack of drought, with McManus concluding, “as long as we can do it, it’s… probably not gonna last as we know, but you know, we’ll take it when we can get it.”
To read more from Gary McManus on his mesonet ticker, click here;
