Following the release of the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the agricultural markets saw a few surprises, though the overall reaction remained relatively muted. Farm Director KC Sheperd recently spoke with Dr. Todd Hubbs, OSU Crop Marketing Specialist, to break down the numbers, the massive global grain supply, and what producers should be watching as they head into the new year.
USDA Bullish on Corn Demand
While many expected a quiet report, Dr. Hubbs noted one specific surprise regarding corn. The USDA raised the corn export number by another 125 million bushels.
“I don’t think we’re probably going to hit 3.2 billion, but it’s possible,” Hubbs said. He noted that while there have been strong sales and export inspections, the USDA appears to be the most optimistic voice in the room. “I don’t think there’s anyone more bullish about corn demand than USDA right now,” Hubbs added, pointing to the upcoming January reports on stocks and production as critical next steps for the market.
“Bushels All Over the Place”
One of the most defining characteristics of the current market is the sheer volume of grain available globally. According to Hubbs, production estimates were raised for major competitors including Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and Russia.
The situation is particularly stark for wheat producers. “It’s insane. Just bushels all over the place,” Hubbs told Sheperd.
Despite a strong harvest in the United States, U.S. farmers are facing stiff competition because crops performed well almost everywhere else. Hubbs noted that the Southern Hemisphere turned out okay, with Australia and Argentina harvesting large crops. Furthermore, early indicators for the Northern Hemisphere’s winter wheat crop suggest the 2026 crop could see yet another increase.
“The world’s got a lot of wheat, and there’s going to be intense price competition to move it as we get into early next year and into summer,” Hubbs explained.
Trade Uncertainty and the “Disconnect”
Despite the supply and demand adjustments, market prices have remained largely range-bound since late November. Hubbs attributes this stagnation to uncertainty surrounding trade policy, particularly regarding China.
Hubbs described a “disconnect” in the current trade environment, where administration announcements are sometimes “walked back,” leaving markets in a state of confusion.
“There’s a lot of, I think, people discounting the actual numbers the administration says,” Hubbs observed. “We’re going to have to see it to believe it kind of scenario right now in markets.”
While there has been decent buying from countries like Bangladesh and markets in Southeast Asia, Hubbs emphasized that everything currently hinges on overseas markets, and clarity may not arrive until well into next year.
Advice for Producers: Watch for Rallies
With low prices and high uncertainty, marketing decisions are difficult. Hubbs advised producers to avoid the trap of trying to time the market perfectly.
“Looking out for price rallies. Looking out for target prices that you think are profitable for you,” Hubbs advised.
He offered a glimmer of optimism, suggesting that the markets may be near their lows and are unlikely to drop much further across the commodities Oklahoma produces. He pointed to potential catalysts for price improvement, including winter or early spring weather rallies, as well as potential resolutions to biofuel or trade policies early next year.
“Monitor the markets, have a good idea of what kind of price you’d be willing to take on old crop and new crop, and get that set up with your marketing advisor,” Hubbs concluded.
