Seth Meyer Reviews the Complexities of 2025 Agriculture:
As Seth Meyer concludes his five-year tenure as the USDA Chief Economist to take the helm at the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, he leaves behind a year defined by intense volatility. In a recent discussion with Rod Bain on Agriculture USA, Meyer admitted that 2025 was so eventful—ranging from animal disease outbreaks to surprising acreage shifts—that summarizing it sequentially poses a challenge.
Livestock: Disease Pressures and Economic Resilience The livestock sector faced significant biological threats in 2025. Meyer noted the continued impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, which affected poultry supplies and egg prices earlier in the year. Additionally, the industry monitored the northward movement of the New World Screwworm through Mexico, posing a threat to U.S. cattle.
Despite these challenges and tighter supplies, the economic picture for livestock producers remained robust. Meyer reported record-high prices for both feeder and fed cattle. He attributed this success to resilient consumer demand for beef, which spilled over to support overall protein demand.
The Crop Economy: High Yields and Squeezed Margins For row crop growers, 2025 presented a more difficult financial landscape. While commodity prices fell from the highs seen in 2022 and 2023, input costs did not moderate at the same rate. Meyer emphasized that this disparity significantly squeezed producer margins throughout the year.
Trade disruptions and market conditions further complicated the picture, leading the USDA to introduce ad hoc assistance programs. Meyer highlighted upcoming “bridge payments” intended to support producers until safety net programs associated with the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” and ARC/PLC payments become available.
Market Surprises in Corn, Soy, and Wheat The 2025 growing season was also marked by unexpected shifts in production data:
- Corn: The industry was surprised in August when FSA-based data revealed a large increase in corn acreage compared to the June report, largely at the expense of soybean acres. Despite record supplies and strong year-over-year yield increases, the U.S. maintained a strong corn export program.
- Soybeans: While yields remained around the trend line, the overall crop size was smaller due to the reduced acreage. Meyer noted that soybean prices saw significant activity driven primarily by trade dynamics.
- Wheat: The U.S. experienced a successful export program for wheat, but Meyer clarified that this was driven by pricing necessity. With another record forecast for global wheat production, U.S. prices had to drop to remain competitive in the world market.
As the agricultural sector enters 2026, it carries with it the legacy of a year defined by high production, resilient demand, and the complex dynamics of a global trade environment.
