Ultra-Fast Fashion and Synthetics Are Displacing U.S. Cotton Demand Creating New Hurdles: A global shift in consumer habits is creating significant headwinds for the U.S. cotton industry. Owen Wagner, Vice President of Grains and Oilseeds Analysis for Rabobank, recently conducted research in Germany regarding the “fast fashion” trend and its displacement of cotton demand on a global scale.
According to Wagner, the retail landscape has evolved rapidly, moving from traditional fast fashion to a new era of “ultra-fast fashion.”
“Fast fashion is the concept of companies rolling out numerous deliveries and lines to their stores and staying on top of trends,” Wagner explained. “But in order to navigate these new trends, what we’ve seen is these fast fashion—and now ultra-fast fashion—companies like Shein and Temu… switching away from natural fabrics more toward synthetics.”
Wagner noted that these direct-to-consumer mail-order giants, largely based out of China, have driven a massive shift in fiber consumption. Consumers may wear an item only a few times before disposing of it, fueling a cycle that favors cheaper synthetic materials over higher-quality cotton.
This indifference toward U.S. cotton in the textile manufacturing sector is compounding competitive pressures. Wagner pointed to the growth of Brazil’s domestic cotton market, noting that between the rise of synthetics and alternative suppliers, the environment for U.S. cotton has become increasingly difficult.
“This sort of indifference toward U.S. cotton in the face of either cotton from elsewhere—namely Brazil—or synthetics, really made for a competitive environment for U.S. cotton,” Wagner said.
Market Distortions and Aid Payments
Beyond the textile market, Rabobank is also closely monitoring the economic impact of direct assistance payments to farmers. While intended to support producers, Wagner warned that these payments can sometimes have unintended, market-distorting consequences.
“Direct payments can be market distorting, and with those distortions come unanticipated, undesirable consequences,” Wagner said.
He highlighted two specific risks associated with relying heavily on ad-hoc assistance:
- Delayed Supply Response: Farmers may not receive clear market signals to adjust production, leading to inefficiencies.
- Inflated Costs: Assistance can keep land prices and cash rents “stubbornly high,” making it difficult for producers to manage their bottom line in a tight economy.
