In a recent Southern Ag Today article, David Anderson writes: Beef production is not increasing in the sense that we are producing more than last year. But, it is increasing seasonally and the year-over-year reductions are not as large as earlier this year.
Beef production tends to hit a seasonal low for the year in the Spring and then increases. From January through April weekly average beef production was 6.1 percent below the same period in 2025. Year-over-year weekly beef production ranged from down 3.2 percent to down 11.2 percent. The decline in beef production moderated during May with the weekly decline in beef production averaging only 3.8 percent. The sharp decline in weekly beef production that occurs each year at this time is due to the Memorial Day holiday shortening the work week.
Beef production is the product of the number of cattle going to slaughter and weights. Steer slaughter tends to increase from Spring to Summer, before declining later in the year. There has been a slight uptick in steer slaughter in recent weeks. Heifer slaughter tends to decline into early Summer but, this year it has increased a bit. On the cow side, dairy cow slaughter is even with a year ago and is right on pace with its usual seasonal decline. Beef cow culling, while remaining below a year ago has jumped up in recent weeks compared to early in the year. Fed cattle weights remain historically large but, dressed steer and heifer weights have experienced a small decline in recent weeks.
Several phone calls about retail beef prices over the last couple of weeks prompted this look at beef production. Seasonal springtime lows in beef production combined with grilling season demands fuel rising retail beef prices through mid-year. Historically, rising beef production after the middle of the year tends to help bring down retail beef prices. More cattle on feed than a year ago, continued heavy dressed weights, and seasonality in beef production have the potential to increase beef production from the tight supplies this Spring. Overall, these factors won’t get beef production bigger than last year or consumer prices lower than last year but they might help moderate retail prices from recent highs.
Anderson, David. “Beef Production Increasing?” Southern Ag Today
