The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released updated June 1 forecasts for the 2026 winter wheat crop in a crop production report. New data highlights significant reductions across the Southern Plains—Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas—driven by persistent drought, high abandonment, and reduced yield potential. These three Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat states continue to experience some of the nation’s most challenging production conditions.
Production is forecast at 1.03 billion bushels, down 2 percent from the May 1 forecast and down 27 percent from 2025. As of June 1, the United States yield is forecast at 46.8 bushels per acre, down 0.8 bushel from last month and down 8.1 bushels from last year’s average yield of 54.9 bushels per acre. Michigan is expecting a record high yield.
As of May 31, twenty-six percent of the winter wheat acreage in the 18 major producing States was rated in good to excellent condition, 26 percentage points lower than at the same time last year. Nationally, 87 percent of the winter wheat crop was headed by May 31, eight percentage points ahead of the 5-year average pace.
Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the six Hard Red Winter States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are all below last year’s final head count. As of May 31, the winter wheat crop in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas was rated in good to excellent condition at 15 percent, 13 percent, and 12 percent, respectively.
According to the June 1 forecast, national winter wheat production is forecast at 1.03 billion bushels, down 2 percent from the May estimate and down 27 percent from 2025.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma likewise reports a sharply reduced winter wheat crop in 2026.
• Production: 64.4 million bushels
— Down 39.5% from 106.4 million bushels in 2025
— No change from the May 1 forecast
• Yield: 28 bushels/acre
— Down 26.3% from 38 bushels/acre last year
— No change from the May 1 forecast
• Harvested Area: 2.3 million acres
— Down 17.9% from 2.8 million acres
— No change from the May 1 forecast
Kansas
Kansas remains the nation’s largest winter wheat producer, yet its 2026 crop is among the most severely affected.
• Production: 203.0 million bushels
— Down 41.4% from 346.8 million bushels in 2025
— Down 5.5% from the May 1 forecast of 214.6 million bushels
• Yield: 37 bushels/acre
— Down 27.5% from 51 bushels/acre last year
—Down 2 bushels/acre from the May 1 forecast
• Harvested Area: 5.8 million acres
— Down 14.7% from 6.8 million acres last season
— No change from the May 1 forecast
Texas
Texas did see minor increase in production due to a yield increase.
• Production: 51.0 million bushels
— Down 40.1% from 85.1 million bushels in 2025
— Up 7% from the May 1 forecast of 47.6 million bushels
• Yield: 28 bushels/acre
— Down 24.3% from 37 bushels/acre last year
— Up 2 bushels/acre from the May 1 forecast
• Harvested Area: 1.7 million acres
— Down 26.1% from 2.3 million acres
— No change from the May 1 forecast
