With the highly anticipated USDA acreage report on the horizon, Farmers Business Network (FBN) is sharing a preview from its sixth annual US Acreage Report. The data highlights how severe weather is altering planting decisions across the country. In a recent discussion with Farm Director KC Sheperd, Josh McClure of FBN broke down the numbers, revealing that while the majority of producers stuck to their initial plans, significant regional shifts are underway due to ongoing environmental challenges.
According to McClure, stability was the primary theme for most producers, with 81 percent of corn respondents and 85 percent of soy respondents reporting no changes to their crops. However, the areas that did shift paint a telling picture.
“The surprising thing that we saw was, first and foremost, most folks didn’t actually change,” McClure said. “However, the spots that we did see the changes… were primarily that corn acres should come down while soybeans go up. It’s not one-for-one, though.”
Corn Outlook Takes a Hit
The March planting intentions report from the USDA suggested US producers would plant 95.3 million acres of corn. According to FBN’s survey, that number is overshooting reality. FBN producers indicate they will plant roughly 1.2 million fewer corn acres than the USDA suggested, dragging the national number down to 94.1 million acres. This shift effectively cuts roughly 180 to 200 million bushels of production out of the United States supply.
McClure noted that the most dramatic reductions in corn are concentrated in the High Plains—specifically, Nebraska, the Dakotas, and around Joplin, Missouri.
“We saw big changes with acres going down for corn, and we think that that was really mostly tied to the drought that you all have been suffering through here now, seemingly all spring,” McClure explained. “Hardest hit from our perspective at this point was Nebraska… The Dakotas and Nebraska and Kansas all saw reductions in both corn and soybeans.”
When asked by Sheperd if these losses represent a permanent reduction of marginal acres or just a temporary pause, McClure remained cautious.
“I wouldn’t say permanent, but for the year, it does feel like it could be lost for the year at this point,” McClure said. “I know after talking to some of these High Plains folks, they were suggesting that they might plant some wheat, see how that did over the winter. But particularly out there in those High Plains, just a lot of long faces.”
Soybeans and Sorghum Move Into Defensive Positions
While corn acres slipped, soybeans saw a modest bump, though not enough to offset the losses in corn. FBN’s survey suggests soy acres will rise by 324,000 acres, just clearing 85 million acres nationally compared to March’s 84.7 million.
Sheperd asked if the pivot to soybeans was a defensive move to cut management costs, or if producers are simply risking low bean yields just to have a crop in the ground.
“I think it’s probably a little bit of both,” McClure responded. “Earlier this year, with crop insurance prices coming in where they did, we saw the economics move distinctly toward soybeans. The projected price for soybeans was on average 55 cents higher than it was last year, while corn slipped 8 cents year-over-year. That really did shift things soybean’s direction, and with higher input costs and then drought on top of that, we just think a number of folks threw in the towel on corn.”
A similar defensive strategy is appearing on failed wheat acres. Following a punishing wheat harvest with heavy abandonment across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, producers are looking for hardy alternatives. McClure confirmed that sorghum is gaining traction as a resilient option.
“We definitely have heard people suggesting sorghum,” McClure told Sheperd. “Sorghum just gives them that extra insurance against what’s really kind of proven to be a tough year this year Mainly just because drought tolerance, right? It’s just incredible out there.”
Supply, Feed Availability, and the Eastern Corn Belt
For livestock producers in states like Oklahoma, which rely heavily on national corn and wheat supplies for feed, the tightening numbers are worth watching. McClure pointed out that crop year 25 exports are still running hot and outperforming USDA expectations, which will naturally erode existing carryout stocks.
Combined with a reduction in projected 2026 corn acres, the market could shift from “well-supplied” to a more vulnerable position if any further yield losses occur.
Meanwhile, the Eastern Corn Belt is dealing with the exact opposite weather issue. From eastern Iowa through northern Indiana, producers just experienced the number one wettest June on record.
“This is quietly concerning,” McClure warned. “We’re hearing from farmers that their stands are yellowing, and they’re seeing fertilizer depletion early. So it’s possible that there’s a story of quiet averageness amid what looked like a real Goldilocks planting and hydrological opportunity that the East had.”
For producers looking at these numbers and trying to decide whether to price now or wait for a weather rally, McClure suggests corn is currently sitting near fair market value based on current USDA metrics. However, as carryout expectations likely adjust downward, more risk premium could be injected into the market.
To learn more about the acreage report or explore marketing and input options, producers can visit FBN.com.
