The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its July Crop Production report, showing further declines in U.S. winter wheat production compared to last month’s forecast. New estimates point to smaller crops across several winter wheat classes, with the national average yield expected to fall to its lowest level since 2015 if realized. While drought and production challenges continue to weigh on winter wheat, the report also includes updated forecasts for spring wheat, durum, and citrus production.
Winter wheat production is forecast at 990 million bushels, down 4 percent from the June 1 forecast and down 29 percent from 2025. As of July 1, the United States yield is forecast at 46.7 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from last month and down 8.2 bushels from last year’s average yield of 54.9 bushels per acre. If realized, the United States yield would be the lowest since 2015.
Hard Red Winter production, at 471 million bushels, is down 5 percent from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 287 million bushels, is down 4 percent from the June forecast. White Winter, at 232 million bushels, is down less than 1 percent from last month. Of the White Winter production, 7.26 million bushels are Hard White, and 225 million bushels are Soft White.
According to the July 1 forecast, national winter wheat production is forecast at 990 million bushels, down 4 percent from the June 1 forecast and down 29 percent from 2025. If realized, the national average yield of 46.7 bushels per acre would be the lowest since 2015.
The southern plains hard red winter wheat crop has largely been harvested and the USDA July Crop Production Report released on Friday shows a common theme of lower total production, yields down from 2025 and even the June report and lower harvested acres in all three states. Oklahoma’s crop was cut almost 9% from the June estimate in the latest report to 58.8 million bushels, well below the 106.4 million bushels produced in 2025. A key reason for the smaller crop production is the sharp decline to 2.1 million acres harvested for grain, with many acres grazed out or abandoned because of drought conditions.
The same story is being seen in Kansas, traditionally the largest wheat-producing state in the US. Total production of winter wheat in Kansas has been called at 196.4 million bushels, off 44% from the 346 million bushels raised a year ago. Yield per acre and harvested acres both contributed to the dismal outlook in the Sunflower state. Kansas had a yield of 51 bushels an acre last year- the July estimate is 33 bushels per acre with just six million acres being harvested this season.
Texas is also down nearly 50 percent from a year ago, when production was 85 million bushels, compared to just 44.8 million this year. Low yields of just 28 bushels per acre are down 24% from a year ago and 6 percent from the June 1 forecast. Harvested area sits at 1.6 million acres, which is down 30% from a year ago and the June 1 forecast.
Oklahoma wheat stats:
- Production:58.8 million bushels
- Down 44.7% from 106.4 million bushels in 2025
- Down 8.8% from the June 1 forecast of 64.4 million bushels
- Yield:28 bushels/acre
- Down 26.3% from 38 bushels/acre last year
- No change from the June 1 forecast
- Harvested Area:2.1 million acres
- Down 25.0% from 2.8 million acres in 2025
- Down 8.7% from the June 1 forecast of 2.3 million acres
Kansas wheat stats:
- Production: 196.4 million bushels
- Down 43.4% from 346.8 million bushels in 2025
- Down 10.0% from the June 1 forecast of 218.2 million bushels
- Yield: 33 bushels/acre
- Down 35.3% from 51 bushels/acre last year
- Down 5.7% from the June 1 forecast of 35 bushels/acre
- Harvested Area: 6.0 million acres
- Down 12.5% from 6.8 million acres in 2025
- Down 4.0% from the June 1 forecast of 6.2 million acres
Texas wheat stats:
- Production: 44.8 million bushels
- Down 47.4% from 85.1 million bushels in 2025
- Down 35.5% from the June 1 forecast of 69.5 million bushels
- Yield: 28 bushels/acre
- Down 24.3% from 37 bushels/acre last year
- Down 6.7% from the June 1 forecast of 30 bushels/acre
- Harvested Area: 1.6 million acres
- Down 30.4% from 2.3 million acres in 2025
- Down 30.4% from the June 1 forecast of 2.3 million acres
