The University of Missouri Food & Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) has released the 2026 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets.
Crop returns, through a combination of continued soft crop prices and elevated production costs, remain under pressure. Crop prices strengthen modestly in 2026/27, but prices remain well below recent peaks. In contrast, we continue to see record cattle prices and project a cautious turn in the cattle cycle in 2027. Increased reference prices incorporated in the 2025 “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) result in increased government program payments beginning in the fall of 2026 (FY2027) while payments on an expansion of up to 30 million base acres from OBBBA appear beginning in the fall of 2027 (FY2028). Additional details on farm income and government costs will be published in September 2026.
Some key highlights include:
• The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price is projected by S&P at $82.63, falling to $74.76 in 2028 and remaining
below $80 for the remainder of the 5-year outlook. Natural gas prices, a key driver of fertilizer prices are projected
at $3.76 per million btu for 2027 and rise, remaining above $4.15 per million btu, for the remainder of the outlook.
• Marketing year average (MYA) corn prices rise to $4.57 in 2026/27 and fall only modestly to a projected $4.35 in
2031/32. Record corn production led to record corn exports in 2025/26, reaching 3,400 million bushels and remains
above 3,000 million bushels while domestic use for ethanol remains flat.
• Soybean acreage rebounded in 2026/27, rising 5.4 million acres to 86.8 million. Strong crush demand supported by
domestic biofuel policy and a favorable soybean-to-corn price ratio holds soybean acreage above 87 million acres
throughout the projection period. Soybean prices rise in MY 2026/27 to $11.66 per bushel on a sharp increase in
domestic crush demand, prices fall as growth in crush slows.
• Intensifying conflict in the Black Sea, with increasing attacks on shipping and port facilities in Ukraine and Russia,
slow exports from both countries resulting in expanding ending stocks for corn and wheat. With the two
countries accounting for roughly 30% of global wheat exports, slowing trade from the region has supported
global wheat prices in 2026. The gradual de-stocking is assumed to begin in the 2027/28 marketing year. U.S.
wheat prices peak in 2027/28 at $6.74 per bushel before falling over the remaining projection period.
• Projected prices for rice, sorghum, and barley also rise in 2026/27 as many crop prices rise from the low prices of
2025/26. While prices have increased, they remain well below the prices observed from 2020 through 2023. Rice
prices have risen on lower acreage in 2026/27 tightens supplies. Sorghum experiences price increases both
through rising corn prices and a higher sorghum-to-corn price ratio on a resumption of trade with China.
• A rebound in cotton prices leads to an increase in cotton area in 2026/27, rising 13.9 cents per pound to 76.4 cents.
While a substantial year-over-year increase, cash margins remain tight and production holds steady near 16
million bales over the 5-year outlook.
For more highlights and detailed findings, read the full report.
