The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its October Crop Production report, updating forecasts for major U.S. crops following a review of acreage and conditions as of October 1. September was warmer than normal for most of the Nation. Parts of the Great Plains, lower Missouri Valley, Delta
recorded temperatures 6°F or more above normal for the month. While much of the Great Basin, Southern Plains, and
Southeast remained drier than normal, parts of Northwest, Southwest, and Northern Plains recorded at least twice the
normal amount of precipitation. Mainly due to storms connected to El Niño, parts of the Southwest and western Corn Belt recorded 6 inches or more of rain. Some locations in Iowa received 9 inches or more of rain for the month.
Corn: The 2026 area harvested for grain is forecast at 88.5 million acres, unchanged from the previous estimate but down
3 percent from last year. Production for grain is forecast at 16.0 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 5 percent from last year. If realized, this would be the second highest production for grain on record for the United States. Based on conditions as of October 1, the yield is forecast at 181.2 bushels per acre, up 2.7 bushels from the previous forecast but down 5.3 bushels from last year’s record high 186.5 bushels per acre. Record high yields are forecast in Arkansas, Iowa, Kentucky, Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee. Ninety-six percent of the corn crop was at the dough stage by September 6, two percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Ninety-six percent of the corn crop had reached the dented stage by September 27, two percentage points ahead of last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. Eighty-three percent of the Nation’s corn crop was mature by October 4, equal to the 5-year average. Twenty-three percent of the 2026 corn acreage had been harvested by October 4, four percentage points behind the 5-year average. On October 4, fifty-four percent of the Nation’s corn crop was rated in good to excellent condition.
Oklahoma corn stats:
- Production: 49.0 million bushels
- Down 17.0% from 59.17 million bushels in 2025
- Yield: 100 bushels/acre
- Down 18.0% from 122 bushels/acre last year
- Harvested Area: 490,000 acres
- Up 1.0% from 485,000 acres in 2025
Kansas corn stats:
- Production: 818.75 million bushels
- Down 12.5% from 935.25 million bushels in 2025
- Yield: 125 bushels/acre
- Down 13.8% from 145 bushels/acre last year
- Harvested Area: 6.55 million acres
- Up 1.6% from 6.45 million acres in 2025
Texas corn stats:
- Production: 258.64 million bushels
- Down 10.5% from 288.9 million bushels in 2025
- Yield: 122 bushels/acre
- Down 9.6% from 135 bushels/acre last year
- Harvested Area: 2.12 million acres
- Down 0.9% from 2.14 million acres in 2025
Cotton: All cotton production is forecast at 13.4 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but
down 3 percent from 2025. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 790 pounds per harvested acre, up 14 pounds from the previous forecast but down 62 pounds from 2025. Upland cotton production is forecast at 13.1 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 3 percent from 2025. Pima cotton production is forecast at 383,000 bales, down 2 percent from the previous month and down 5 percent from 2025.
On October 4, seventy-four percent of the Nation’s cotton acreage had bolls opening, 2 percentage points behind the
5-year average. By October 4, twenty-three percent of the 2026 cotton acreage had been harvested, 2 percentage points
ahead of the 5-year average. At that time, thirty-three percent of the crop was rated in good to excellent condition,
2 percentage points lower than the previous week. Ginnings totaled 917,150 running bales prior to October 1.
Oklahoma cotton stats:
- Production: 190,000 bales
- Down 71.4% from 665,000 bales in 2025
- Yield: 285 pounds/acre
- Down 68.8% from 912 pounds/acre last year
- Harvested Area: 320,000 acres
- Down 8.6% from 350,000 acres in 2025
Kansas cotton stats:
- Production: 90,000 bales
- Down 41.9% from 155,000 bales in 2025
- Yield: 561 pounds/acre
- Down 41.6% from 966 pounds/acre last year
- Harvested Area: 77,000 acres
- Unchanged from 77,000 acres in 2025
Texas cotton stats:
- Production: 4.395 million bales
- Down 16.0% from 5.23 million bales in 2025
- Yield: 537 pounds/acre
- Down 14.9% from 628 pounds/acre last year
- Harvested Area: 3.925 million acres
- Down 2.3% from 4.019 million acres in 2025
Soybeans: Production is forecast at a record 4.56 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the previous estimate and up
7 percent from last year. The forecasted yield, at a record 53.1 bushels per acre, is up 0.1 bushel from last year’s final
estimate of 53.0 bushels per acre. Acreage harvested for beans is forecast at 85.9 million acres, unchanged from the
previous forecast but up 7 percent from last year. The October objective yield data for the 11 major soybean-producing States (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota) indicate a lower pod count compared with the previous year. Compared with final counts for 2025, pod counts are down in 7 of the 11 published States. South Dakota showed the greatest decrease, down 414 pods per 18 square feet from the previous year. As of October 4, eighty-five percent of the United States soybean acreage was at or beyond the leaf dropping stage, 2 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Soybean harvest was 25 percent complete as of October 4, eight percentage points behind the 5-year average. As of October 4, fifty-seven percent of the Nation’s soybean acreage was rated in good to excellent condition. If realized, the forecasted yield will be a record high in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, and Tennessee.
Oklahoma soybean stats:
- Production: 11.5 million bushels
- Up 12.9% from 10.15 million bushels in 2025
- Yield: 23 bushels/acre
- Down 20.7% from 29 bushels/acre last year
- Harvested Area: 500,000 acres
- Up 42.9% from 350,000 acres in 2025
Kansas soybean stats:
- Production: 154.77 million bushels
- Down 5.2% from 163.425 million bushels in 2025
- Yield: 33 bushels/acre
- Down 17.5% from 40 bushels/acre last year
- Harvested Area: 4.69 million acres
- Up 15.7% from 4.05 million acres in 2025
Texas soybean stats:
- Production: 3.04 million bushels
- Up 13.4% from 2.68 million bushels in 2025
- Yield: 32 bushels/acre
- Down 23.8% from 42 bushels/acre last year
- Harvested Area: 95,000 acres
- Up 5.6% from 90,000 acres in 2025
Sorghum: Production is forecast at 291 million bushels, up 3 percent from the previous forecast but down 33 percent
from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yield is forecast at 55.7 bushels per acre, 1.3 bushels above the previous
forecast but 16.9 bushels below the 2025 yield of 72.6 bushels per acre. By October 4, seventy-two percent of the Nation’s sorghum acreage was mature, 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Thirty-two percent of the crop had been harvested, 6 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Twentysix percent of the Nation’s sorghum acreage was rated in good to excellent condition on October 4, even with the previous week.
Oklahoma sorghum stats:
- Production: 13.26 million bushels
- Down 43.3% from 23.49 million bushels in 2025
- Yield: 39 bushels/acre
- Down 32.8% from 58 bushels/acre last year
- Harvested Area: 340,000 acres
- Down 16.0% from 405,000 acres in 2025
Kansas sorghum stats:
- Production: 159.25 million bushels
- Down 36.8% from 252 million bushels in 2025
- Yield: 65 bushels/acre
- Down 27.8% from 90 bushels/acre last year
- Harvested Area: 2.45 million acres
- Down 12.5% from 2.8 million acres in 2025
Texas sorghum stats:
- Production: 79.9 million bushels
- Down 20.6% from 100.7 million bushels in 2025
- Yield: 47 bushels/acre
- Down 11.3% from 53 bushels/acre last year
- Harvested Area: 1.7 million acres
- Down 10.5% from 1.9 million acres in 2025
