The 2026 prospective plantings report has been released today, and State Statistician Troy Marshall joined associate farm reporter Carli Davenport to break down those numbers for Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas and share his insights.
Oklahoma:
State Statistician Troy Marshall says the latest numbers reflect both market signals and ongoing dryness across the state. “This is our first look at what producers are kind of feeling for this year, as of the reference date of March 1,” Marshall explained.
For Oklahoma, corn plantings are expected to decline slightly. “We saw 520,000 acres set to be planted to corn, down about 4% from what it was last year,” he said. In contrast, sorghum is seeing a notable increase. “We saw 540,000 acres intended to be planted this year, up about 23%,” Marshall noted, adding, “probably no surprise, being that we’re already seeing kind of a dry year, We know sorghum is a good crop that likes that drier weather”
Soybeans and cotton are also trending upward. “We were looking at 420,000 acres set to be put to soybeans… a 15% increase,” he said, while cotton is projected at “450,000 acres… about a 15% increase over last year.” Wheat acres are also up, with “4.4 million acres of wheat planted… about a 6% increase.”
However, not all categories are growing. “We’re looking about a 3 million acre harvest intention [for hay], which is about 10% down from what it was last year,” Marshall said, pointing to uncertainty tied to dry conditions.
Kansas:
Kansas producers are showing a mix of increases and decreases, similar to Oklahoma, though with some notable contrasts.
Marshall said, “For corn, looking at a 7.1 million acre intentions… up about 4% from what it was last year.” Soybeans are also on the rise. “Kansas is… projecting a 4.4 million acre plantings for soybeans… up about 7%,” he added.
On the other hand, sorghum and wheat are trending lower. “Sorghum 2.7 million acres intended… down about 10%,” Marshall said, while wheat is “looking at a 7 million acre… down about 4% from what Kansas saw in 2025.”
Cotton and hay are relatively steady, with cotton slightly down and hay harvest intentions dipping just 1%.
Texas:
In Texas, cotton stands out as one of the biggest movers in this year’s report.
Marshall said, “When we look at the cotton number… about a 5.5 million-acre intention, this is up about 4% from where it was last year.” Corn is also seeing a modest increase. “2.6 million acres intended to be planted to corn… an increase of about 4%,” he said.
However, several crops are declining. “Sorghum, a pretty significant decrease, about a 21% decrease,” Marshall noted, while soybeans are also down. “95,000 acres, about a 14% decrease from last year.”
Hay production is holding steady at “5.1 million acre intention,” while wheat is slightly higher. “5.7 million acres… up about 4% over where it was last year,” he said.
Weather and Economics Driving Decisions
Across all three states, Marshall emphasized that weather remains the dominant factor shaping producer decisions.
“Weather is going to be the big, big thing… all eyes, especially here in Oklahoma, are really looking… and hoping for this rain,” he said. “We’ve seen lots of reports, this is a very pivotal point for wheat to be able to see this rain.”
Beyond weather, input costs are also weighing heavily on planning decisions. “We can’t discount the fact about the economic side… fuel costs are definitely higher right now. Fertilizer costs are higher,” Marshall said. “So those economics are another big factor that plays on this too.”
As the growing season approaches, these early intentions highlight a cautious but strategic approach by producers navigating both environmental and economic challenges.
