In today’s Beef Buzz, senior farm and ranch broadcaster Ron Hays features comments from Tyler Cozzens, director of the Livestock Market Information Center, who breaks down strong first-quarter beef demand, record-setting retail beef prices, worsening drought conditions across cattle country, and what shrinking hay supplies could mean heading into summer.
First-Quarter Beef Demand Posts a Big Jump
Cozzens says March trade data helped complete the numbers needed to evaluate demand during the opening months of 2026, and the results showed consumers continuing to buy beef despite higher prices. “We actually had the March trade data that was released a couple of weeks ago, and that piece of information actually gave us the final statistics that we needed for the first quarter of 2026 to calculate our first quarter demand indices for both beef and pork,” Cozzens said.
According to Cozzens, LMIC’s retail all-fresh beef demand index posted a strong gain. “Livestock Market Information Centers calculates retail all fresh beef demand index, and that was reporting a strong first quarter for 2026 with an index value of 147,” he said. “This index value actually increased 10 points, or about 7% from the prior year, so big jump there.”
Looking at the bigger picture, Cozzens said beef demand has shown major growth over time. “Over the last seven years, since 2019 on the first quarter basis side of things, the all fresh retail beef demand index actually increased 41 points,” he said. “That’s an increase of about 39% over the last seven years.”
He added that this type of year-over-year increase is uncommon. “A 10-point annual jump year over year in the first quarter has only occurred five other times,” Cozzens said, noting comparable jumps occurred during periods including 2003–2004, 2014–2015, and several years since 2019.
Record Beef Prices Raise Summer Questions
What makes the demand story even more notable, Cozzens explained, is that stronger beef demand happened while prices climbed to historic highs. “The rise in the all fresh beef demand index during the first quarter, 2026 occurred while the all fresh beef retail price averaged $9.55 per pound, so that was a record,” he said. “Actually an increase of $1.25, or 15% from the previous year.”
He noted prices moved even higher in April. “The April all fresh retail beef price was a record at $9.64,” Cozzens said, adding that ground beef, roasts, and steaks all reached new highs. “Ground beef was $7.06 per pound in April. Roasts were also a record at $9.41 per pound in April, and we also saw a record for steaks at $13.02 in April.”
Drought Expands Across Cattle Country
Beyond demand and prices, Cozzens said drought conditions remain a growing concern for cattle producers. “The latest drought monitor map actually shows that 76% of the U.S. was experiencing dryness or drought conditions,” he said. “At the same time last year, only 55% was experiencing dryness or drought.”
He added that drought pressure is increasingly affecting cattle-producing areas. “As noted by USDA on May 12, approximately 62% of the cattle inventory is within an area experiencing drought, compared to 29% at the same time last year,” Cuzzens said. “So, a 33% increase in drought across cattle country.”
Hay Stocks Drop, But Regional Differences Matter
Cozzens said LMIC is also closely watching hay inventories, particularly the twice-a-year USDA reports. “That’s one of those pieces of information that we only get twice a year, December 1 and May 1,” he said. “Getting this May 1 piece of hay stocks inventory data is quite key.”
Nationally, hay supplies moved lower. “The May 1 hay stocks data was released last week and actually was reported at 23.3 million tons,” Cozzens said. “That was actually down about 3% from last year nationally.”
While western states and parts of the Northern Plains posted double-digit declines, Cozzens noted some Southern Plains states moved in the opposite direction. “Texas actually fell 33% from last year, while a rise in hay stocks was seen for Kansas, which increased 70%, and Oklahoma, which increased 38%,” he said.
Even with lower inventories and declining pasture conditions, Cozzens said hay prices have remained relatively stable so far. “Hay prices are currently tracking close to year-ago levels, but if drought persists, this could impact hay prices over the summer months,” he said.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR above for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
