In today’s Beef Buzz, senior farm and ranch broadcaster Ron Hays speaks with Don Close of Terrain about the historic cattle market, managing risk in a record-price environment, and whether the industry is beginning to see the first signs of herd expansion.
Historic Prices, But Bigger Dollar Swings
Close said 2026 has been one of the most remarkable years the cattle industry has ever experienced, with record-high prices accompanied by significant volatility. “There’s been a lot of volatility, a lot of excitement,” Close said. “But if you’re looking at prices on a week-to-week basis and just against historical projections, the market has really performed very orderly.”
While the market has behaved as expected from a technical standpoint, Close noted that today’s price levels magnify every market correction. “The market’s not broken, but you’ve got to be in a position to absorb these huge dollar-per-hundred setbacks.”
Because of that increased financial exposure, Close said livestock risk management tools have become more valuable than ever. “LRP came along at a wonderful time for a producer that has taken advantage of at least protecting the downside.”
He also praised improvements to Livestock Risk Protection and the newer Livestock Gross Margin insurance product, saying the combination of insurance products and option strategies can help producers protect increasingly valuable cattle inventories.
Watching for Signs of Herd Expansion
As producers debate whether it’s finally time to rebuild the nation’s cow herd, Close said he’s cautiously optimistic that expansion may already be starting. “I’m the closest I’ve been to thinking, okay, we’ve got some modest expansion going on here.” He said the upcoming July Cattle on Feed data that offers male and female breakdowns on the animals in the feedlot will provide a better indication. But improving pasture conditions across portions of the country are encouraging.
Close pointed to eastern Oklahoma, East Texas, and parts of Kansas as areas that have received timely rainfall. “They’ve had excellent rains,” he said, adding that the northern Flint Hills of Kansas are “as gorgeous as I’ve ever seen it… they were pristine, perfect.”
Those forage resources are critical because producers remain hesitant to expand without confidence they can support additional cows. “I still think that confidence of having a feed supply has to be number one.”
High Costs Still Limit Expansion
Even with favorable cattle prices, Close said rebuilding remains financially challenging—particularly for young and beginning producers. “You take the price of these females, the amount of down money required to get there… it’s just incredibly difficult for a beginning producer.”
He added that while cow-calf producers are benefiting from record prices, margins become much tighter farther down the production chain. “You go beyond that cow, and it’s all a margin business. In fact, we’ve bit away all the margin that’s in there.”
If feed costs don’t improve significantly, Close warned that stocker operators and cattle feeders could face a much tougher second half of the year. “The margin guys could have the second half of the year could be pretty rough.”
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR above for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
