Following the release of the latest USDA reports, Farm Director KC Sheperd caught up with Oklahoma State University Crop Marketing Specialist Todd Hubbs to break down what the numbers mean for grain markets, winter wheat pricing, and farm program decisions.
While the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report did not deliver major surprises, Hubbs noted several adjustments across corn, soybeans, and wheat. The USDA lowered the national corn yield as expected, sparking a brief rally before prices flattened out. On the soybean side, the USDA raised export projections and maintained bullish biofuel numbers, leading to a strong run-up in beans that has since begun to pull back.
For wheat, overall export totals remained unchanged, though the USDA shifted volume between classes—lowering Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat exports by another 10 million bushels. Hubbs said the adjustment reflects the slower export pace caused by high U.S. Gulf prices relative to global competitors over the last few months. Meanwhile, increased wheat production estimates in Australia and Argentina continue to weigh on global prices.
“There’s a lot of wheat in the Southern Hemisphere, and I think all these things are just keeping pressure in the market,” Hubbs said.
With wheat prices facing seasonal pressure and spillover from corn, Hubbs said he leans toward holding onto remaining cash wheat rather than selling at current lows. Looking ahead, he is monitoring South American corn and soybean development, as well as winter wheat conditions across the Northern Hemisphere and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea.
For growers looking to price their 2027 wheat crop, Hubbs pointed to historical seasonal trends. Rallies typically occur as the crop emerges from winter dormancy in April and May before fading later in the year.
“If you didn’t get that first big run-up to wait and see, I’d wait and see,” Hubbs said, noting that waiting until early spring also gives Oklahoma producers a clearer picture of their production potential.
The USDA also dropped its season-average wheat price forecast to roughly $6.20, a move that could influence how Oklahoma growers approach Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) elections. Hubbs said he expects the season-average price could drop another 10 to 15 cents before the marketing year concludes.
“If we drop it even more, PLC might be coming into the picture a little bit,” Hubbs said, encouraging producers to consult OSU Extension specialist Amy Hagerman to run the numbers for their specific operations.
On the input side, Hubbs offered little optimism for near-term relief on diesel prices, which continue to eat into Oklahoma basis levels. Tight refining capacity and geopolitical tensions involving Iran are keeping fuel costs elevated, though Hubbs noted that basis spreads could improve slightly by a nickel or a dime if prices ease.
Overall, Hubbs expects grain markets to remain locked in a sideways trading pattern through the end of the year unless a major geopolitical event or South American weather issue sparks new volatility.
“The data is in for our crops,” Hubbs said. “Until we can get some bullish information in the market, I think we’ll probably see that for a while through the end of the year.”
