Mark Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist, offers herd health advice as part of the weekly series known as the “Cow Calf Corner,” published electronically by Dr. Peel, Mark Johnson, and Paul Beck. Today, Johnson talks about the biological time lag of heifer retention.
It is evident the pace of expansion of the U.S. cow inventory will be slower than past cycles. Several factors will continue to contribute to the slow rebuild. Our beef cow inventory continues to tighten and pushes market prices to record levels. With regard to heifer retention, the questions most of us are asking:
- Will increased heifer retention (at some point in the future) result in even higher prices?
- How long will these prices last?
Good questions. Past cattle cycles indicate the answer to the first is most likely yes. When producers begin to retain more heifers to develop as herd replacements, it results in fewer calves going to market.
The answer to the second questions is this week’s topic. The biological time lag of beef production. The reality of beef production is that what competing animal proteins can accomplish in weeks (broiler production) or months (pork production), will take those of us in the cow-calf sector years to accomplish. The biology of the beef animal is why.
The Time Line
If we selected a high percentage of our spring (2024) born heifer calves to develop as replacements this fall. Next spring (2025), those properly developed replacement heifers would be ready to breed by 14 – 15 months of age. The following spring (2026), those heifers would calve at two years of age. Those calves would be ready to market at weaning in the fall of 2026. Those calves would become yearlings in 2027 and eventually become marketed as finished “A Maturity” finished cattle or beef carcasses six to seven months after entering the feedyard.
Bottomline
As of now there is little evidence of large scale heifer retention across the country. If and when we begin to retain heifers (on a large scale) we are a couple of years away from increasing the cow inventory, and at least 30 months away from increasing the supply of weaned calves, and so on, regarding yearlings and fed cattle. As is always the case in the beef cattle industry, other factors can and will have impact on the market. That being stated, the basic fundamentals of supply and demand favor strong prices for all categories of cattle until cow inventory begins to increase, and that will take some time.
