Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays featured comments from Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel about the current state of drought in the Southern Plains and how it affects producers.
For almost a year, meteorologists have anticipated the arrival of a La Nina weather system, but as rain continued to fall, many began to doubt. “I believe it is here. We are locked into an extremely dry pattern in the Southern Plains right now,” Dr. Peel said.
With decent years, weather-wise, in 2023 and 2024, hay supplies are good in Oklahoma for the time being; however, Kansas may not be in as good shape.
According to Dr. Peel, drying conditions are expected at this time of year, so the biggest concern now is water supply. “A lot of stock ponds in the area are low, not critically low, yet, but we typically don’t replenish stock ponds during winter so that will be a source of concern for producers as we go into the winter.”
Winter wheat for grazing is also a source of concern. While some producers put the seed in the ground dry and are hoping for rain to bring it up, others are waiting for moisture to begin planting. According to the latest USDA Crop Progress report, Oklahoma is behind on wheat planting as compared to last year and the average of the past five years.
“There is some wheat that is up, but it isn’t growing very fast,” Dr. Peel said. “It’s going to have to have moisture very soon to continue making progress. All in all, our window for optimal winter wheat grazing is passing.”
With timely rainfall, winter wheat grazing is still possible at this time, but it will be delayed and likely a shortened grazing season.
Despite the dry conditions, the cattle market continues to shine. “The market is still based on tightening numbers,” Dr. Peel said. “If the cow herd continues to get smaller in 2024, we will go into 2025 with an even smaller calf crop next year.”
Dr. Peel said that the biggest question people have been asking is when herd rebuilding will begin. He said, “We don’t see any indication of it, yet. We might see some at the end of the year, but in any event, nothing is going to change anytime soon. We are going to continue to see a tight supply situation that will continue to support cattle prices at an elevated level.”
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