State Climatologist Gary McManus spoke recently at the Southern Plains Climate and Drought Update Webinar. Farm Director KC Sheperd featured comments from his presentation related to the problems Oklahoma’s drought is causing for wheat planting, wildfires, and reservoir levels.
Looking at the map above and on the left, McManus said the dark green places are the major wheat-growing areas in Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. “Most of that area is in a drought area, the red-hatched area. That is the significant portion of the winter wheat crop trying to be planted in drought conditions. A lot of that has been dusted in.”
According to USDA’s Crop Progress Report, Oklahoma’s winter wheat is 59 percent planted, a 15 percent drop from the five-year average.
The dry conditions have also caused an uptick in wildfires. McManus said, “Even though we are still in the transition phase, between warm and cool seasons, we have had a widespread freeze already, so the vegetation is transitioning to a cool season state, but look at the 16-inch plant available soil moisture – the fire researchers at Oklahoma State University have come up with this to indicate the danger for large wildfires.”
According to McManus, once the cool season is here, the daily Fire Weather Conditions will be the main indicator of wildfire danger, and fire danger will increase as more vegetation enters the dormant stage due to cooler weather and shorter days. The potential for wildfires was termed “unnerving” by an Oklahoma Forestry Service Wildfire expert.
“That is certainly not something you want to hear from an expert in that field,” McManus pointed out. “He said that across most of the state of Oklahoma, it is not looking good for wildfires as we go into the dormant season.”
Along with pasture ponds, reservoir and lake water levels across the state are dropping rapidly. In Southwest Oklahoma, Lake Lugert is 18 feet below normal, and Tom Steed Lake is 9 feet below normal. “Lugert/Altus is a very important reservoir for cotton irrigation and this is the third year in a row that it hasn’t been available for that purpose due to low levels,” McManus said. “All across the state, you see those values starting to drop.”
He listed some: In Northeast Oklahoma, Skiatook is 10 feet below normal, Wister in far East Central Oklahoma is 5 feet below normal, and Lake Hefner in Central Oklahoma is 7 feet below normal.
Lake Hefner is Oklahoma City’s main reservoir for drinking water, so water was released from Canton Lake in Northwest Oklahoma to feed Lake Hefner; therefore, Canton Lake’s water level will be dropped substantially as well.
“When we have these long-term drought impacts, like these reservoir levels, it isn’t just local. It can impact reservoirs in surrounding regions as well,” he said.
McManus said it isn’t uncommon for fall dry spells to last through the winter and into early spring, especially during La Nina cool seasons. Anecdotally, in 2018, parts of the state went up to 150 days without receiving a quarter inch of rain in a single day. Last year, areas in the Panhandle went 200 days without a quarter inch of rainfall.
“If this does occur as it has in the past, it will not be good that this dry spell has been given as much of a head start, should it continue through early spring,” McManus cautioned.
McManus pointed out that this is the fourth iteration of drought in the past three years, so it does demand attention, especially across the southern portion of Oklahoma, to worry about the drier-than-normal and warmer-than-normal signal. He reminded listeners that it isn’t as bad, yet, as last year’s drought, but those previous droughts will have an impact on the current situation.
“I think the current drought situation has a pretty good head start on those previous two droughts,” he said. “This one is a little more supercharged due to that previous dryness, in my opinion.”
