In today’s beef buzz, Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays speaks with Cattle market analyst Cassie Fish, who says the recent downturn marks a major shift in market momentum, signaling that “we are seeing the end of the bull market as we speak.” She notes that with just a few headlines and social media posts, “the cattle market has been turned totally upside down in a matter of just a few days.”
Fish describes the pace of the decline as unprecedented and deeply concerning. “It certainly is very disconcerting to see these kinds of dramatic declines,” she says, pointing out that “we’ve seen an almost 10% decline in December cattle and 11.6% in November feeders.” The downturn, she adds, “started on the 17th of October—only seven trading days ago—so that is incredible speed that we have never really seen before.”
Despite the sharp market drop, Fish emphasizes that “We have the tightest supply of the entire bull market cycle right in front of us—November into next summer.” Even with historically low cattle numbers, “demand has been excellent, despite the fact that we do have record high prices.” However, she warns that the market’s psychology has shifted from fundamentals to fear: “It just creates worry… we’re more worried about what might happen or what has happened in the past.”
That uncertainty, Fish continues, is weighing on ranchers who might otherwise be ready to rebuild their herds. “It is not an encouraging environment to expand into,” she admits. Holding back heifers or expanding the cow herd has become “a big decision,” given “the capital requirements, the expenses, the difficulty in finding help.” She adds, “This isn’t comforting to encourage expansion—so that is completely true.”
Fish rejects the idea that this is a temporary setback. “This is not a blip,” she says firmly. “It’s not just a quick hit down and we’re going to bounce back. It’s going to take a while to sort this thing out.” Although she stops short of declaring a bear market, Fish warns, “We’re already down 10%. A bear market correction would be, say, 30%.”
Even so, Fish sees some signs of relief. “We did see some liquidation yesterday… the December live cattle futures lost over 10,000 open interest,” which she describes as “a pressure relief valve.” That, she says, “was a step in the right direction,” and may explain why “the market is rallying this morning.” Still, she cautions, “It’s going to take a minute to catch our breath, figure out where we are, and maybe today is the beginning of some stabilization. I certainly hope so.”
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
