In today’s Beef Buzz, senior farm and ranch broadcaster Ron Hays speaks with Dr. Derrell Peel, who discusses rising carcass weights, drought concerns, and managing risk in a volatile but strong cattle market.
Carcass Weights Keep Climbing
Peel says the industry continues to push cattle to heavier weights, noting, “We put about 50 pounds on steer and heifer carcass weights in 2024 and 2025, and starting off 2026 like we’re going to do that again.”
He acknowledges some uncertainty about how long that trend can continue, adding, “at one level, I kind of wonder if we can keep doing that,” but points to strong incentives and advancements in production: “the way genetics have evolved and managing cattle has evolved, we can push these cattle to bigger weight.”
Even so, he emphasizes the bigger picture: “that offsets part of the tight supplies and declining feeder numbers, but it doesn’t change the fact that beef production is still falling.”
Drought Limiting Herd Rebuilding
When it comes to herd expansion, Peel points to weather as a major roadblock. “The drought map is increasingly scary,” he says, noting dry conditions across the Plains.
He adds, “it doesn’t look terribly favorable… it’s dry in quite a few places,” highlighting concerns from the Southern Plains up through Nebraska and parts of the Northern Plains. Because of that, Peel believes progress on rebuilding will be slow: “that alone is going to be kind of a limiting factor, there’s still just not a lot of indication that producers are very aggressive” about retaining heifers.
“Scary Good” Markets
Peel describes the current cattle market in simple but powerful terms: “for several months now, I’ve kind of described cattle markets as scary good.”
He explains producers are balancing optimism with caution: “they’re very excited about markets, but also kind of nervous about markets.” That uncertainty comes from multiple directions, as he notes “geopolitical events… animal health and border issues… and infrastructure issues in the U.S.,” all adding to the volatility.
Managing Risk in a Volatile Market
Despite strong prices, Peel urges producers to stay disciplined. “You don’t want to miss the opportunities that are here… but you do have to be aware of the volatility,” he says.
He encourages flexibility, explaining, “sometimes just a couple of weeks allows a market to bounce back from a headline.” At the same time, he stresses the importance of protection tools: “those more formal risk management tools become very important, even though we’re in a generally bullish market environment.”
Staying Grounded Through the Ups and Downs
Peel’s bottom line to cattle producers is clear—take advantage of strong markets, but don’t ignore the risks. As volatility continues, the key is balance: staying flexible, using available tools, and keeping perspective in what he calls a “scary good” market environment.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR above for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
