In today’s Beef Buzz, senior farm and ranch broadcaster Ron Hays spoke with beef industry consultant and analyst Dr. Nevil Speer about the latest numbers on tariff-free lean beef trimmings imports, the impact on hamburger prices and the possibility of bringing back mandatory country-of-origin labeling.
Lean Beef Imports Falling Short of Expectations
The Trump administration’s plan called for 300,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings to enter the United States tariff-free over a three-month period, with 100,000 metric tons allocated for September, October and November. Speer says the first month came in well below that target. “Looks like from initial data, September only about 30,000 metric tons made it. So only a third of the third initial tranche ultimately ended up here.”
Speer says the numbers show the U.S. has not been flooded with imported beef, which was a concern when the tariff-free plan was announced. “Clearly, we haven’t flooded the market, which was the concern with beef imports,” Speer said. “And by the way, at the end of the day, really those are all lean trimmings, to create hamburger.”
Little Impact on Hamburger Prices
The administration also said the additional imports could help lower beef prices for consumers, but Speer says grocery prices do not move that quickly. “We just know that grocery store prices don’t move that quickly one way or the other, and you just can’t have that kind of an impact,” Speer said. “And trying to change the beef supply chain and move it is like turning the Titanic. It just doesn’t happen that way.”
Speer says consumers have not seen much change in hamburger prices and suggests other costs are getting more attention. “I don’t think consumers have seen one bit of difference, and then I would also say separately, they’re not focused right now on the price of hamburger,” Speer said. “They’re looking at the prices of gasoline and diesel every single day.”
Brazil Benefits From the Trade Deal
Speer says Brazil appears to be one of the primary beneficiaries of the tariff-free beef arrangement, particularly because of its trade situation with China. “That’s really about it. That’s exactly right because you’re trying to come up with an additional 300,000 metric tons all of a sudden,” Speer said. “All of the data sort of leads us to conclude that Brazil was up against the barrier in China. They have some extra lean trimmings, and they need to move those.”
He says that helped create an opportunity to move some of that product into the United States, although the imports have not arrived in the volumes some expected.
Speer Calls the Import Plan a “Nothing Burger”
Speer says the overall impact of the 300,000-metric-ton plan has been relatively small compared with the size of the U.S. beef industry. “It really is a nothing burger, and I get it. Producers get really emotional about it, and I agree with them 100%,” Speer said. “It’s not the imports; it’s the interference.”
Speer says producers have legitimate concerns, but he believes the actual volume of beef involved needs to be kept in perspective. “Let’s all take a breath a little bit and understand this is a huge business,” Speer said. “At the end of the day, 300,000 metric tons isn’t that much.”
He says the initial expectations that all 300,000 metric tons would enter the country appear unlikely to materialize. “I wrote about it that it’s unlikely all of it would come, and that’s kind of how it looks like it’s playing out,” Speer said. “And so, yes, it was a nothing burger or just kind of a big talking point for them to flash around on social media and say, look what we’re doing for consumers.”
Country-of-Origin Labeling Back in the Conversation
Another part of the administration’s recent actions directed USDA and the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office to study the feasibility of bringing back mandatory country-of-origin labeling, or MCOOL.
Speer questions why another study is needed when country-of-origin labeling is already being addressed through the farm bill. “Why do that when it’s already into the farm bill?” Speer said. “And actually, why don’t you just ask the Senate to do it themselves, right?”
He says the issue has already been debated extensively and believes the executive order does little to move MCOOL forward. “Most of those questions we’ve already addressed and asked, and we’ve beaten this thing up so many times,” Speer said. “It was kind of a big fat nothing of an executive order. It doesn’t advance MCOOL anywhere.”
MCOOL Could Become More Difficult in Washington
Speer says the political environment in Washington could make the MCOOL debate even more complicated, particularly with the president becoming involved in the issue. “Having the president kind of jump into the middle of it probably put it more at risk than trying to get MCOOL across as it was,” Speer said.
With the farm bill still facing significant challenges in Congress, Speer says it remains uncertain how the issue will ultimately play out. “But you know, none of the Democrats want to play nice with the president,” Speer said. “So that’s where we are.”
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR above for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
