In today’s Beef Buzz, senior farm and ranch broadcaster Ron Hays speaks with Dan Halstrom, President and Chief Executive Officer of the U.S. Meat Export Federation, about the current state of U.S. beef exports, challenges in China and South Korea, emerging international opportunities, and the long-term outlook for global demand for American beef.
China Continues to Drive Export Declines
While U.S. beef exports have faced challenges during the first five months of 2026, Halstrom emphasized that the overall picture is much stronger once China is removed from the equation. “Through five months on the beef side, we’re down 10% on volume and about 5% on value,” Halstrom said. “You take China out, we’re actually just down slightly on volume. We’re up 6% on value. So China is the main delta year on year.”
Despite the decline, Halstrom said demand across much of Asia has remained remarkably resilient. “Taiwan continues to perform up from the previous year. Japan, while not up, is almost steady. So really, you look at it and things, given where the market levels are, things are still pretty good. They’re very resilient. Demand for beef continues to be strong.”
South Korea’s Decline May Be Temporary
South Korea remains the largest international customer for U.S. beef, even though exports have softened this year. Halstrom explained that Australia’s export quota is distorting the market and could ultimately benefit U.S. exporters later in the year. “We’re down 21 percent in the month of May, but down 10 percent year to date. However, it’s a bit of a mirage.”
Australia has been shipping large volumes of frozen beef before exceeding its tariff-rate quota. “When that quota kicks in, your out-of-rate quota tariff goes from 5% to 25%. So you can definitely look at us being much more competitive on the frozen beef into Korea the second half of the year.”
Because of that shift, Halstrom believes exports could rebound significantly. “It’s very possible we could see this rebound where we’re actually up for the year, even though it looks down at the moment.” He added that while chilled beef exports have held up well, frozen beef shipments have accounted for most of the decline.
Japan and Taiwan Help Offset Regional Weakness
Although exports to Japan are also slightly lower than last year, Halstrom said the broader Asian market is balancing itself as buyers shift purchasing patterns. “We’re down not nearly as much as Korea, but if you look at Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and China, this product mix is very similar.”
He said Taiwan and Japan have helped absorb product that might otherwise have gone to China or South Korea. “You’re seeing Taiwan and Japan picking up the slack while Korea is off, and of course China’s off. I think you’ll see some rebound here in the second half of the year in Asia.”
China Market Still Too Risky for Most Exporters
Although U.S. beef plants have regained access to China, Halstrom said significant technical barriers remain, preventing most exporters from shipping product. “The reality is right now nobody is shipping. The risk is way too high.”
He pointed specifically to China’s testing protocols for beta-agonist residues. “The methodology in MGA—they don’t follow the science, so you’re almost assured, if they test, of being suspended. And on the ractopamine side, similar type of issue.”
Because of the value of today’s beef shipments, exporters simply cannot afford the financial risk. “One container is worth $300,000 to $400,000. Not many people are going to take a chance on getting that rejected.”
China’s importance to the U.S. beef industry makes the situation even more significant. “To go from one and a half billion to almost nothing—that’s an amazing story.” Halstrom noted that exports to China actually peaked in 2022 at just over $2 billion.
Despite the current challenges, he remains cautiously optimistic after recent discussions between U.S. and Chinese officials. “They acknowledged the fact that there’s a second chapter of work to be done. There is a focus on getting this worked out, especially around the MGA residue testing methodology. Hopefully we’ll see some good outcomes from that work.”
MGA, or melengestrol acetate, is an FDA-approved feed additive commonly used in U.S. feedlot heifers. Disagreements over China’s testing methods for MGA residues have created uncertainty for exporters, who risk having shipments rejected even when they comply with U.S. production standards.
Emerging Markets Continue to Impress
While China has dominated recent headlines, Halstrom said numerous international markets continue to create exciting opportunities for U.S. beef. “Taiwan continues to be exciting, and then you look at some of the Latin American markets. Central America continues to perform.”
One of the biggest surprises has been growing demand for premium beef products. “We’re selling and marketing Prime grade beef in places like Guatemala—unheard of five or six years ago.”
Mexico has also become an increasingly valuable customer. “Mexico is also promoting a lot of Prime beef.”
Halstrom said international demand is expanding beyond traditional steak cuts. “We’re at record production on Prime right now… Chuck rolls, rounds, sirloins, culottes—a lot of demand for this rest of the carcass outside of middle meats on Prime globally.”
That diversification creates additional value throughout the entire animal. “We have a lot of demand for Prime middle meats here, but there is a lot of rest of the carcass to market, and that’s something we’ve really been focused on. He added that countries such as Peru and Colombia are also becoming promising destinations for higher-value U.S. beef.
Building Value Through Quality
Looking ahead, Halstrom said USMEF’s long-term strategy is centered on educating consumers worldwide about the advantages of U.S. beef rather than competing solely on price. “We’ve got to continue to tell our story, and it’s a constant state of education in these various markets.”
While mature markets such as Japan and South Korea already understand U.S. production systems, many developing markets still need education about American beef. “Our goal is always to get it to where you’re talking about the quality of U.S. beef and the attributes and the taste before they talk about price, because if you start with price… it becomes a commodity market real quick.”
Instead, USMEF focuses on promoting quality, consistency, food safety, and nutrition. “We’ve been pretty successful on that value equation.”
That strategy continues to pay dividends for U.S. cattle producers. “You look at the month of May, $468 a head for U.S. beef attributable to export. That’s really what it’s all about—is adding the value, complementing the domestic market.”
Future Growth and Mexican Competition
Halstrom believes several regions could become major growth markets over the next five years. “You look at a place like Central America. That region is one. Southeast Asia, places like Indonesia, another potential… and even Mexico.”
He pointed to Mexico’s remarkable transformation over the course of his career. “When I started in the business, it was a dumping ground on Friday afternoon to sell your surplus product, and today they’re buying Prime grade programs. So, pretty exciting out there.”
However, Halstrom also expressed concern about the continued closure of the U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle because of New World screwworm. “We’re definitely watching that, and concerned is the right word.”
He warned that prolonged restrictions could unintentionally strengthen Mexico’s own fed cattle and beef industries. “Today we’re indirectly incentivizing them to expand their fed beef industry and feedlot activity down there without a doubt. So yeah, definitely something we have to be aware of and watch.”
To review the most US meat export numbers from May 2026 for beef, pork and lamb, click here.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Ag Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR above for today’s show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
Our coverage of the 2026 Summer Cattle Industry Business Meeting from Denver is powered by Farm Data Services of Stillwater, Oklahoma.
