In today’s Beef Buzz, senior farm and ranch broadcaster Ron Hays speaks with Dave Weaber, senior animal protein analyst with Terrain, about what cow-calf operators are really thinking as they consider rebuilding the U.S. cow herd. Weaber discusses results from the first Farm Credit cattle customer survey on herd expansion, which looked closely at producer intentions for 2025, 2026, and 2027.
Weaber says the survey revealed that while many producers are looking ahead to expansion, most are moving cautiously. “A lot of them are looking forward into 2026 and 2027 with their eyes on expansion,” he explained, adding that producers who did expand in 2025 did so “pretty small scale.” Instead of retaining heifers, many opted to buy cows for quicker returns, noting that “they wanted revenue as soon as they could,” which meant herd inventory largely just “got a new address.”
According to Weaber, grazing conditions—not balance sheets or producer age—were the main reason many chose not to grow. “It was really around grazing conditions,” he said, pointing to lingering drought impacts and the need for rangeland recovery after four to five tough years. He added that producers spent much of 2024 repairing balance sheets, while 2025 has been focused on capital expenditures and deferred maintenance before turning toward herd growth.
When it comes to future expansion, Weaber believes producers will remain conservative. “I think it’s very slow grow,” he said, noting that memories from the rapid and costly expansion of 2014–2015 are still fresh. While today’s higher calf values improve the math—“these $5,000 heifers are actually a better investment than those $3,000 heifers were”—he emphasized that decisions still hinge on long-term market expectations.
Weaber also addressed strong beef demand and ongoing adjustments in packing capacity. He called demand a major confidence booster, saying 2025 is shaping up to be “a record year for real per capita spending.” However, he cautioned that more packer realignment may be ahead, stating, “That shift in the reconciling of packing capacity versus availability of cattle has just begun.” Looking long term, Weaber estimates the industry may need to add about 1.5 million cows, but stressed it will be a slow rebuild, likely taking “two or three years at least,” and possibly longer.
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